US Presidential Elections 2024: Who, What, Why | Election Watch

Author: Abhinav Santhosh Nambeesan

Research and Publications Division

November 2024 will see the United States head to the polls, as the American people will elect their representatives at the federal, state, and local levels. While state and local elections are important for not only the people living there but due to their effects at the federal level, the attention of both the country and the world is primarily concentrated on the elections at the federal level- those for the Presidency and for Congress. The two political parties- the Liberal Democratic Party and the conservative Republican Party- have been raising hundreds of millions of dollars in preparation for a brutal battle for an election that many have been calling ‘the most important election in American history,’¹ as this will determine the fate of issues like abortion, climate change, and even American democracy itself.

In the US, the President is not elected directly by the people, but unlike another indirect presidential election like India, the American people actually do cast votes that determine the fate of the election. The American President is elected by a group of 538 people, who are collectively referred to as the “electoral college,”² and a certain number of electors are divided between all the states, with more populated states getting more electors. It is these electors that the people are actually voting for when they cast their ballot for President, and to win the presidential election, a candidate needs to have a majority of the votes of the electoral college- or 270 electoral votes. The general population actually votes to direct the electors to vote for a presidential candidate. For example, the state of California had 55 electors in the Electoral College in 2020, and in November, when people there vote for either Biden or Trump, they will be voting for who they want the 55 electors to vote for. In 2020, a majority of Californians voted for Joe Biden, and seeing this result, when the electoral college voted for President in December 2020, all 55 electors cast their votes for Joe Biden. Most states have laws in place that mean that electors are required to vote for President in the way that the people- for example, if a California elector in 2020 voted for Donald Trump in the electoral college, it would be illegal and his vote would be dismissed because the people of California actually voted for Joe Biden. The Electoral College is crucial to the election for one major reason- all states but two make it so that whoever won a plurality of the votes in a state would receive all the electoral votes of that state. For example, in 1992, Democrat Bill Clinton only won 40% of the vote in Ohio, but because no other candidate actually got more than 40%, Clinton received all 21 electoral votes from the state, while his opponent got no electoral votes, despite getting 20% of the vote. All this is very crucial to understanding how presidential candidates campaign- they are not actually campaigning to get the votes of a majority of the population, but a majority of the electoral votes. Because the vast majority of people- an estimated 60% of the population³- are members of one of the two parties and are going to vote for them no matter what, the candidates are actually competing for the ‘independents’ who are not affiliated with either party.

Another key concept to understand for US presidential elections is the concept of “swing states.” In the vast majority of states, one party or the other is almost sure to win, and because of the electoral college, there is really no need to campaign there. For example, California is a very heavily Democratic state, so Joe Biden has no need to campaign there because it is a surety that he will get all 54 electoral votes that the state will have in November. Similarly, Mississippi is a strongly Republican state, so Donald Trump will have no need to campaign there, and its 6 electoral votes are sure to go for Trump. These are called “safe states".” The Electoral College makes it so that certain states, where the number of people who vote for either party is relatively close, are the ones that actually have the chance of voting one way or the other, and it is in these states that the candidates are actually contesting for. These states are called “swing states,” and are called so because in one election, they might vote one way, and in another, they might vote the other way, and so they will “swing” between the two parties now and again. The particular states that are swing states have changed throughout history, and in 2024, there are eight swing states that the election is centered around⁴- New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. These are the states that were very close in the 2020 election, and they have an equal chance of voting Democrat or Republican in November this year. There are other states that have also been close in recent years- Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Virginia- but they are considered safe for one party or the other now, though in case of some extraordinary circumstances, they might go the other way. By combining the expected results of the election in all the safe states, and keeping the swing states aside, it is almost sure that Biden is going to have a minimum of 219 electoral votes, and Trump is going to have a minimum of 218 electoral votes- the man who will reach the majority of 270 electoral votes will depend on how the eight swing states go.

As of February 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are the presumptive nominees of their parties- meaning that it is almost certain that Biden will be contesting for re-election from the Democratic Party, and Donald Trump will once again be nominated by the Republican Party for President. While there is a complex process for the Republicans to nominate a challenger to Biden, Trump has completely dominated this process, and so it is almost certain he will win the nomination- the real question is if he can defeat Biden in the general election. Election polling shows that at this moment, Joe Biden is going to lose to Trump in every single swing state⁵, as he trails Trump by many percentage points in these states. This shows that it seems to be very likely that Trump is going to win the Presidential election, and this is certainly corroborated by Joe Biden’s personal unpopularity⁶. FiveThirtyEight’s poll aggregator shows that only 39% of Americans approve of Joe Biden as President and 55% of Americans disapprove. By just looking at the polls, it seems certain that Joe Biden is going to lose. However, by taking a closer look at the key issues up for election, this is actually not so clear, and in fact, the probable outcome might actually be the opposite.

Let us take a look at the major national issues that this Presidential election is going to be fought on, and what the American people will have in mind when casting their votes in November.

Key Issues

| The Economy

In 1992, President George H. W. Bush had seemed to be almost certain to win the election- he was popular, especially with moderates and independents, was the successor to the very popular Ronald Reagan, and had just won the First Gulf War, during which his approval rating had hit an unthinkable 90%. While a recession was going on at the time, few people really thought it would affect the election, since Bush was popular on basically every single other social issue. However, in a political shock, the relatively unknown Democrat, Governor of Arkansas Bill Clinton managed to defeat him in the Presidential election- something which just a year before, could not have been imagined. However, Clinton’s chief campaign strategist, James Carville, revealed why Bush had lost in just five words that ring true for almost every election in the entire world, in the past and the future- “It’s the economy, stupid.”⁷ It has been observed throughout history that generally, except under very extreme circumstances, economics is everything in the minds of the voters, and in American history, many Presidential elections have been waged and won almost entirely on the economy- 1932, 1980 and 2008 are all great examples of this. In 2024, it really is not clear who exactly will make this a key issue- for now, Biden is doing good, as inflation and unemployment have both decreased, and he is a supporter of welfare programs like Social Security.

However, what actually matters is whether the people actually feel the effects of a growing economy, and as of now, that does not seem to be the case.

While unemployment and inflation have decreased, the costs of things like healthcare, housing, and food have continued to rise, and this has particularly affected young people. Wealth inequality- the situation that a smaller and smaller number of people own a larger share of the national wealth- has also become a very big topic, as poverty has increased, while the rich continue to get richer.

Joe Biden seems to be keen to draw attention to his large infrastructure projects, massive investment into computer chips and other manufacturing, and his protection of welfare schemes like Social Security and Medicare, even branding his policies as “Bidenomics⁸, harkening back to “Reaganomics,” which refers to the economic policies of conservative hero Ronald Reagan. Welfare schemes are popular among the poor, but there is a feeling that it is not enough, and Biden seems to have been shifting to the left on this issue. Meanwhile, Republicans have continued to advocate for cutting taxes and reducing government spending, as they believe that it is the high tax burden, especially the income tax, which is causing trouble for the population, and they are also very concerned about the rising national debt, which they want to correct by slashing government spending. Economic issues are pronounced in every state, but Biden hopes that his investment into infrastructure and manufacturing will help him in the swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which are historically centers of manufacturing in the country but have been suffering from de-industrialization.

| Abortion

Abortion is a good example of a political issue that is almost entirely an American-centric issue, as it has generally not been an issue that politicians run on in other countries. Abortion is, in simple words, the termination of a pregnancy while the fetus is in the womb of the mother before the baby is born. Abortion has been, not just in the US but historically across the world, controversial especially because of religion. Christians believe that life actually does not begin from the moment of birth, but the moment of conception- when the sperm fertilizes the egg and forms the zygote, and so, because of this, Christians believe that abortion is murder. While it is sometimes disputed whether the Bible explicitly prohibits abortion⁹, almost all Christian churches oppose the practice.

In America, abortion was almost entirely an issue that states decided for themselves, and by the 1960s, almost every state had made abortion a criminal offense. However, in 1973, a Supreme Court case changed all that- often considered one of the most controversial and important cases in American history. In Roe v. Wade¹⁰, the Supreme Court ruled with a vote of 7-2 that a Texas law that prohibited abortion was unconstitutional and declared that any law in any state that prohibited abortion was a violation of a woman’s fundamental right to privacy with regards to their own bodies. With this, abortion became legal in all fifty states, and it immediately thrust the issue into the national spotlight. For religious conservatives, this essentially meant that the Supreme Court had made the murder of children legal, and it became one of the most important issues for conservatives, because of course, if one actually believed that children were being murdered and it was legal to do so, they would try to make it illegal.

In the fifty years since the Roe decision, Republicans have been working almost tirelessly to overturn this decision and make abortion illegal- Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush even tried to amend the Constitution to do so, though they failed. However, what Republicans really have been aiming to do is to turn the Supreme Court conservative enough that it would reverse the decision. In the US, it is the President who appoints Supreme Court Justices. However, until 2016, Republicans had been unable to do so, but when Donald Trump came to power, he already had one spot on the Court open for him to appoint a Justice, and it seemed like they might be able to finally achieve their objective. By the end of his term, he had managed to replace three of the nine Justices on the Court with conservative Justices, including one that was extremely controversial¹¹, because it happened a couple of weeks before the Presidential election of 2020.

In 2022, conservatives finally achieved the victory they had been dreaming of and consistently fighting for almost fifty years, as the Supreme Court, in the decision Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization¹², ruled that Roe v. Wade had been decided wrongly, and there was no constitutional right to an abortion, instantly clearing the way for states to make it illegal, which many did immediately¹³. However, religious people are not the only ones who view abortion as a key issue.

Women, even many conservative women, not only want to have the right to have an abortion, but believe that abortion is a comprehensive part of women’s healthcare. In fact, the vast majority of doctors, scientists and experts in women’s health also say that abortion is a key part of healthcare for women¹⁴, and by banning it, it will significantly harm women. Because giving birth is an event that has the potential of causing significant harm or even the death of the mother, liberals believe that a ban on abortion will hurt and kill significant numbers of women who got pregnant unexpectedly or against their will, and would have chosen to get an abortion if they could. In fact, several studies have found that bans on abortion cause a significant rise in maternal mortality¹⁵ and deaths of women from pregnancy-related issues in general.

While most of the bans contain exceptions for pregnancy that is a result of rape or incest and for pregnancies that cause harm to the health of the mother, just the fact that these bans exist means that even if one of these things apply, women have very few options due to clinics being shut down, and poor women, who do not have the means to travel to another state for an abortion, are harmed the most from this. In fact, in many cases, by the time one of these three things is determined, it is already too late to have an abortion¹⁶, and permission is also not granted many times. Liberals, even those who do believe in religion, are almost entirely opposed to this idea that abortion is murder, and Atheists or believers in religions where abortion is not considered as murder see these laws as an imposition of laws motivated by Christianity onto them. The anger of women against the Supreme Court’s ruling and the desire to keep abortion as a right for women was a very big factor in the 2022 Congressional and state-level elections, and was seen as a key reason why Democrats massively overperformed expectations¹⁷ and actually gained a seat in the Senate.

Abortion has continued to be a very big issue in American politics, and has essentially succeeded in competing with the issue of the economy to be the most important issue in America for the elections. For Democrats, the abortion issue is actually very beneficial- polls consistently show that the American public as a whole actually support women having the right to an abortion¹⁸ by a very large margin. It is also an issue that has motivated Democrats to turn out to vote, which is very important in a country where turnout has consistently been low, and the issue has also caused many moderate Republican people to vote Democrat due to this one issue. This has been shown at the state level, when, in referendums regarding the issue of abortion since the Dobbs decision, the pro-abortion side has succeeded every single time¹⁹, even in conservative and strongly Republican states like Montana, Kansas and Kentucky. For the November 2024 election, pro-abortion groups have been working hard to put abortion to state-wide referendums in as many states as they can²⁰, which would drive up Democrat turnout and hopefully carry Biden and other Democrats at the state and federal level to a victory.

Biden has long been a supporter of the women’s right to have an abortion, and after the Dobbs decision, he signed several executive orders to try and protect women’s access to medicinal abortion, which did help many, and shored up support from women in particular. He has promised that, if the Democrats win a majority in the House and Senate and he is re-elected, they would pass a law legalising abortion nationwide- which seems unlikely due to such a law almost certainly needing 60 out of 100 Senators voting for it.

Trump, meanwhile, has historically been on the side of women having the choice to have an abortion or not, but once he began campaigning for his 2016 election, and especially after his 2020 loss, he became anti-abortion.

Conservatives, especially religious conservatives, adore him because he was finally able to achieve what Reagan never did- overturning Roe v. Wade- and this is one of the reasons why his base is so incredibly loyal to him. Trump has indicated that he would support a ban on abortions performed after 16 weeks of pregnancy²¹, which was pointed out to be essentially meaning that women have a very narrow window between finding out they are pregnant and the time limit to get an abortion. This has made the opposition to Trump even stronger, especially among women.

Abortion is an issue on the topic of which Democrats are very well-positioned to campaign on, while the Republicans have been really harmed because of it, as they have lost almost every single election since the Dobbs decision was announced. In a way, the victory that Republicans had been fighting for almost fifty years might actually be what kills their chances of an electoral victory in the near future.

| Climate Change

Climate change has become a very big issue in this century all over the world, and in the US, the frustration of people, especially young people, at the lack of progress on this issue has caused climate change to be a big issue in the election as well. The US has been very slow on this issue, especially in comparison to other countries in Europe and countries like India and China, because climate change has actually become a political issue- the fact that climate change is happening itself has become a topic of political debate. While the vast majority of Americans believe in climate change and want to move towards renewable energy, the Republican Party is largely hostile to the idea that climate change is an existential threat, and they do not want the massive amount of government spending required to rapidly switch over to renewable energy²².

Democrats, being the party that is mostly supported by young people, are largely supportive of the idea that a shift towards renewables is urgently needed, and while President Biden has attracted a lot of criticism due to him continuing to clear the way for drilling for oil and gas in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which he signed in 2022, contains hundreds of billions of Dollars in spending on combating climate change²³, which has been pointed out to be one of the largest laws ever passed on this issue. Democrats, while continuing to be concerned that the actions being taken are not enough, believe that a second Trump administration will be disastrous for climate policy, as he is very much on the side of oil and gas, and does not believe in climate change at all.

Climate change is once again an issue which the Republicans are losing on, as the vast majority of Americans, including conservatives, believe in climate change and the harms it will cause²⁴, but while it is a motivating factor for young Democrats to turn out and vote, Republican voters are largely not basing their vote on this issue.

| Immigration

Unlike other issues, immigration is an issue that the Republicans actually do perform better on, and it is one of the main reasons why they have made it such a central issue in this election. While Republicans have been skeptical of immigration for decades, it was after the 9/11 terrorist attacks that they became actively hostile to both legal and illegal immigration. Also, in the 2010s, a large number of people from Mexico, Central America, and South America began to try and cross the Mexican-American border to get into the US and claim asylum, because of various issues but gang violence in particular. While a growing portion of the Republican Party has been using racist and overtly white supremacist rhetoric in opposing immigrants, the party as a whole believes that the US, already struggling with issues like crime, a rising cost of housing, and the cost of living, should focus on improving the lives of Americans already living in the country, before letting others in. Donald Trump has largely taken the former stance, and has been criticized for his comments²⁵ and policies on immigration, which have been described as white supremacist and “cruel.”

Democrats take the humanitarian route generally- saying that seeking asylum is a perfectly legitimate and legal move for people who are fleeing desperate circumstances, which is legal as per international law, and it should be the obligation of the richest country on earth to help people who are fleeing desperate circumstances. Democrats also point out the Trump administration’s policies regarding controlling immigration, which have been described as “illegal and inhumane²⁶” by most observers and human rights organizations. They also say that immigration is a net positive for the country economically²⁷, and that immigrants commit less violent crimes than the general population²⁸, to counter the narrative of the Republicans.

Immigration is quite a polarised issue, but it would pose a big issue for Democrats, particularly in states like Texas and Florida, where opposition to illegal immigration is quite large, but two states which Democrats believe they can at least narrow down into making them swing states. Florida used to be a very crucial swing state, but the Republicans have increased their share of the vote recently, especially because of the support of Cuban-Americans, who largely oppose illegal immigration and so also like Trump²⁹ and the Republicans. The swing state of Arizona, being right on the border, is also one where support for immigration is all over the place, and Republicans hope to target this sentiment to win the state. Republicans also want to use immigration to target white, working-class voters in the states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, by saying that corporations have been replacing American workers with cheap foreign labor, and so immigration is an issue of the working class. All in all, Republicans do seem to perform better on this issue, and it might give them a small boost for the election.

| The Israel-Hamas Crisis

The issue of Israel has been a big political topic in America since that state was created, but it is really in the 21st century that Americans have become much more opposed to what Israel has been doing in regard to Palestine. The Israel issue is very important to a certain portion of the Republican base- Evangelical Christians.

Very simply, Evangelicals, who are a subset of Protestants, believe that for the “messiah” to come back, it is crucial that the Jews control Israel, and because of this core religious belief, they are very strong supporters of Israel³⁰. Because Republicans are heavily reliant on the Evangelical vote in key swing states of North Carolina and Georgia and need the votes of Evangelicals to hold on to almost all of their safe states, the party is a very strong supporter of Israel, and it does not seem like it will sway away from this support.

Democrats have really been struggling because of this war- Muslim Americans almost entirely support Palestine, not just because of their religion, but also because of what Israel has subjected the Palestinians to, and Muslims also tend to vote Democrats since Republicans are largely a party for white Christians. Muslims in two key swing states- Michigan and Wisconsin- have been indicated to be very dissatisfied with what Biden has been doing on this issue, and polls show that they are likely to not vote at all in November. Left-wingers have also begun to dislike Biden for his approach on the issue, and at this moment, it has really caused Biden to slip in the polls.

However, it does not seem like by November, the Israel issue is going to be as important as it is right now. Left-wingers absolutely will not vote for Donald Trump, and as November approaches, it seems likely that voters will largely resign themselves to voting for Biden simply because they oppose Trump.

Are Republicans Unpopular?

Various issues matter for Democrat and Republican voters, and these issues may not be the same things. Republican politicians have recently begun to run on more extreme social issues- homosexuality, transgenderism, immigration, the question of religion in politics, and others. In almost all of these, Republicans are mostly running on the unpopular side- trying to ban transgender healthcare³¹, banning abortion, ending or severely restricting immigration, and wanting religion to have more influence on politics and society³². All of these stances have been proven to be unpopular among the general population, and it seems like even many Republican voters, who generally tend to be white men who live in rural and deprived areas, have begun to feel like their party is not paying enough attention to actual economic issues that affect them. Even in these elections in 2024, Republican politicians continue to try and focus on issues like transgenderism and abortion, both are issues that only really appeal to a decreasing portion of the conservative base and actually alienates moderates and independents³³, who see their rhetoric as hateful and irrelevant.

Meanwhile, Democrats have been very good at campaigning on the topic of abortion, which is a topic that has really enraged women against the Republicans, and have used it to defy polling and win elections in 2022 and 2023. In 2022, polls had predicted that the Democrats were on the way to losing more than fifty seats in the House and almost six seats in the Senate, but almost entirely because of abortion³⁴, they only lost nine seats in the House and actually managed to gain one seat in the Senate. At the state level too, they gained seats in legislatures across the country and performed very well. This just shows how much abortion has hurt the Republicans, and as the November election approaches, abortion will not go away as an issue that will drive up turnout for liberals and moderates, and this will really help Democrats.

Also, Democrats perform well on issues like healthcare, as many Democrats have begun to call for universal healthcare to be set up, which is something that all other countries in the “developed world” have. Democrats are also supportive of welfare schemes, especially Social Security, which the Republicans have become increasingly hostile towards³⁵. The increasing level of poverty and wealth inequality has made the American public supportive of welfare policies, which the Democrats are supportive of. Republicans perform very poorly among voters who see welfare policies as important, and many Democrats at the state level are using this to win their own elections.

The Fate of American Democracy

Donald Trump, both as a business and media tycoon and as a politician, has a history of troubles with the law³⁶, including his recent 2024 conviction on all 34 charges, but it was really the time after his loss in the election that caused a monumental amount of legal issues to arise for Trump. In the two months between his election loss and the day he officially left the Presidency, Trump claimed that Joe Biden’s victory was illegitimate due to widespread fraud and illegal voting, and launched many legal challenges in the courts, which were all dismissed. No one- even Trump’s own lawyers- have ever been able to prove any kind of concrete evidence that there was fraud in the election³⁷, but once the courts proved to not be a road to overturning the results, Trump went the political route, as he pressured political officials in swing states to disregard the actual results and give him the victory. He also riled up his very loyal and devoted supporters to believe that the election was illegitimate, and his rally on 6th January 2021, held outside the US Capitol, led to a large mob of his supporters storming the Capitol building³⁸ to stop Congress from certifying the election.

Donald Trump’s attempts to overturn the election results led to a serious destabilization of American democracy- a large portion of the American population has lost trust that elections are even legitimate³⁹, and believes that every election in which Republicans do not win is fraudulent. It is not just a belief among the people- many Republican politicians have been actively engaged in trying to reform the electoral system to make sure that Democrats can never win ever again- including a failed attempt in the courts to get the ability for states to simply disregard the votes of the people and appoint Republican electors to the electoral college⁴⁰. In many states, Republicans who actively deny the results of the 2020 election are the very people who control the electoral process, and they were involved in trying to overturn that election. The US, mostly as a result of this, has recently been categorized as a “backsliding democracy,⁴¹” meaning that there is an active threat to its democratic institutions and a potential of the US sliding into autocracy.

Donald Trump, especially in the last year of his term, had begun to implement policies that many considered authoritarian, especially in relation to dispersing protests. He had always expressed a great deal of respect for autocrats like Putin, Erdogan, and even Kim Jong-Un, and it seemed like after he left office, he became an increasing believer in authoritarianism. In December 2023, he alarmed many by saying that he would not be a dictator “other than day one”⁴²- with the implication that he would, indeed, be a dictator on that day. Meanwhile, his allies in the party and associated organizations have put out a plan for a Republican presidency in 2025, called “Project 2025⁴³,” which contains many extreme promises, including a plan to replace the entire government bureaucracy with workers loyal to Trump⁴⁴, putting the FBI and the Department of Justice directly subordinate to the President and therefore loyal to him, which Trump has indicated he would use to go after his political opponents⁴⁵. All of this has really scared domestic and international observers, who have said that a Trump victory will lead to the death of American democracy⁴⁶.

Trump, due to his attempts to engage in insurrection and overturn the election results, has found himself in many legal troubles and threats of not just being sent to prison, but also legally being barred from even being on the ballot for the election- which the conservative Supreme Court will decide if it is constitutional⁴⁷. He also is in trouble for various other legal issues such as him hiding classified documents in his home and various tax issues. These cases are very crucial- a majority of Americans in swing states have said that they will not vote for him if he is found guilty⁴⁸, which means that the outcomes of these cases might just determine the result of the election. (Update: Trump has recently been convicted of 34 counts of fraud)

In November 2024, the American people will be voting while having all of this in their minds, and it seems like Donald Trump is really losing a lot of support because of all of his authoritarian rhetoric. While his supporters are incredibly loyal and would almost certainly not accept the results of the elections if he loses, many international observers have said that it would destabilize the country and the world⁴⁹.

Who Will Win?

As has been seen, election polling shows that Biden is far behind Trump in all the swing states, he is personally unpopular and has begun to lose more and more of his base. However, the difference between the popularity of the two parties is much stronger- the Democrats are by far more popular than what is seen as a Republican Party that is slipping into extremism and white supremacy. While this difference is also not reflective in the polls, it can be seen in the Democrats’ consistent victories in elections since the Dobbs decision was announced, as they have won elections even in places where they had significant disadvantages. The Democrats have consistently performed better in the elections than polls indicate, and it is pretty safe to assume that this will be the same in November 2024.

Abortion is an issue that has almost replaced the economy as the single most important driving factor behind who will win the election, and Democrats hold the most popular position- that it should be legal. Most crucially, it seems like referendums on the legality of abortion will be on the ballot in several states on the day of the election, which will certainly drive up Democrat turnout.

Democrats are very scared about what a second Trump administration will bring, and it seems like many moderates and conservatives have also. begun to be turned away by his rhetoric. Issues like the economy, immigration, and even the transgender issue will be seen as increasingly unimportant if people actually believe that the fate of American democracy is on the line. Many Republicans might, because they are turned away by both parties, decide to not vote at all or even vote Democrat, and Biden will also be provided a boost because the Democrats are favored to win the elections at the state level in swing states.

Overall, looking at the big picture and not just the election polls, it seems like the victor of the Presidential election is likely to be Joe Biden, as Donald Trump is likely to turn away more moderates and might even go to prison. However, at such an early stage, no one can be sure, and fundamental shifts in the electoral situation might occur due to extraordinary reasons.

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