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by Woven together by shared history and cultural heritage, India and Bangladesh present a fascinating exploration. This article delves into the historical and contemporary parallels that bind these two nations. It also analyses the various economic, political, and geopolitical factors that have shaped their complex and enduring connection. Despite the strong historical and cultural ties, this relationship finds itself at a crossroads. China's growing economic and military influence in Bangladesh compels a reevaluation of this strategic partnership. While countering China's influence is a significant concern, India's approach needs to be more nuanced. India must go beyond simply countering China. By navigating the complexities of the 21st century together, India and Bangladesh can not only ensure their own prosperity but also emerge as key players in the evolving Asian century. This strategic partnership, if nurtured carefully, can serve as a model for regional cooperation and stability in South Asia.
Brief by Riya Yadav
Summer Research Intern 2024
Tracing the evolution of geopolitical relations
The relationship between India and Bangladesh has always faced numerous complications. The two countries have rich cultural histories and a vast border. They have, however, also had their fair share of disputes and settlements. Before India and Pakistan became independent in 1947, both nations were ruled by the British. Bangladesh was a part of Pakistan until 1947, when a bloody conflict led to its independence.
With its dramatic geopolitical shifts and the creation of a new nation, the Indo-Pak War of 1971 is seen as a pivotal moment in the history of the Indian subcontinent. Deep-seated ethnic, linguistic, and political difficulties were at the basis of it, and as a result, what was once East Pakistan gave rise to Bangladesh. The administration of West Pakistan suppressed and marginalized Bengali nationalists, which led to the outbreak of violence. India responded by interfering on behalf of the people of East Pakistan, which resulted in an immediate and resounding triumph.
The political climate and interpersonal ties in the region were significantly and permanently impacted by this conflict, which also changed the geographical boundaries of South Asia. It brought attention to the difficulties in establishing a nation and the fight for independence. The goals of underprivileged groups were highlighted by Bangladesh's independence, which also changed the balance of power in the area.
How the subsequent bravery of the Indian Army coupled with the spirited fight put up by Mukti Bahini — the Bangladeshi guerilla resistance movement consisting of the Bangladeshi military, paramilitary and civilians — defeated the Pakistani forces is a tale etched in the annals of history. It is important to note that while Russia or the then Soviet Union supported India and Bangladesh's struggle for freedom, the United States supported Pakistan's cause as they feared a Soviet Expansion in South Asia.
India and Bangladesh have been contiguous neighbours and form a sub-region comprising northern and eastern India and Bangladesh. They are very similar in terms of language, culture, and religion. Bangladesh and India share borders that measure 4,093 km. long. Bangladesh is located in a fertile terrain full of rivers, and the northern and eastern parts of India that are adjacent to these countries form the Gangetic basin which has a population of 400 million people.
They both have high population growth rates and experience the problems attendant to the huge pressure exerted on land and other resources. India’s population is 1.29 billion whereas the population of Bangladesh is 140 million. The majority of the population in India and Bangladesh is primarily dependent on agriculture: around 65 percent of the population in India and 62 percent in Bangladesh.
However, both India and Bangladesh face problems of insufficient power, water, and infrastructure; both countries are actively seeking foreign capital and technology. They are highly dependent on Western markets for their exports and have growing, vibrant service sectors. India’s service sector has achieved the highest double-digit growth rate in the past few years, while Bangladesh’s has grown at 6 percent. In Bangladesh, political upheavals disincentivize potential investors.
All three countries have had high levels of poverty but all are experiencing a decline in poverty in recent years. India’s poverty rate declined to 11.2 percent in 2022-23 from 29 percent in 20113-14 and Bangladesh’s from 24.3 percent in 2013-14 to 18.7 percent in 2022-23. The bulk of the population in both of the countries is young and job creation for the productive age groups has proven to be one of the biggest problems of all.
India-Bangladesh Bilateral Relations
The strong bilateral relationship between India and Bangladesh clearly indicates an overall partnership based on equality, sovereignty, trust and understanding that goes far beyond a strategic alliance.
As a testament to the strength of their partnership, both countries saw a surge in bilateral activity in 2023. On March 18, both prime ministers officially opened the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline virtually.
Security and Border Management:
There is active cooperation between various agencies of both countries working jointly to combat illicit drug trafficking, fake currency, and human trafficking, and cooperation on police matters, and anti-corruption activities, among others. The 4,096 km long international border is being managed peacefully and cooperatively using a variety of mechanisms.
Defence Cooperation:
In 2023, there were notable bilateral exchanges in the defense industry as the Chiefs of the Indian and Bangladeshi Armed Forces paid visits to each other. The opening of the Akhaura- Agartala cross-border rail link is one of the crucial ways in improving north-eastern India’s connectivity with Bangladesh.
India and Bangladesh have an Inland Waterways Trade and Transit Protocol (PIWTT) in place that was put into effect in 1972 to facilitate trade and transit over inland waterways between the two nations.
The agreement has been put into effect by both nations for the use of the Mongla and Chittagong Ports in 2023. As a result, India would be able to use these ports in Bangladesh to move cargo between its northeast and its mainland. This will cut down on transportation expenses and times considerably.
Economic and Commercial:
India is Bangladesh's second-largest trading partner in Asia, and Bangladesh's largest trading partner in South Asia. One of the key tenets of relations between Bangladesh and India is cooperation in the power and energy industry. Additionally, ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL) is involved in offshore oil exploration through a cooperation with Oil India Limited. Additionally, in 2023, IOCL registered as a G2G provider and began supplying POL goods to Bangladesh.
Development Partnership:
Bangladesh is currently India's biggest development partner. Together with LOCs, the Indian government has been giving grants to Bangladesh for a number of infrastructure projects, such as building the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline, dredging Bangladesh's inland waterways, and building the Akhaura-Agartala rail link.
One of the key pillars of India's development assistance are High Impact Community Development Projects (HICDPs). India's development cooperation with Bangladesh is heavily reliant on human resource development, as evidenced by the numerous continuing training programs and scholarships it offers. At several of India's top training facilities, the Indian government has been offering training to professionals, judges, police officers, and civil service workers from Bangladesh. In May 2023, the first Bangladeshi Start Up group travelled to India; in July 2023, India made a reciprocal visit to Bangladesh. The project is an important example of the robust development partnership between India and Bangladesh.
HICDPs are an integral part of India’s developmental assistance to Bangladesh. These projects are designed to have a significant impact at the community level. India has funded 68 HICDPs in Bangladesh, which include the construction of academic buildings, cultural centres, skill development and training institutes, student hostels, and orphanages. An additional 16 HICDPs are currently being implemented. These projects aim to foster human resource development, which is a key component of India’s development cooperation efforts in Bangladesh. They not only contribute to the socio-economic development of the local communities but also strengthen the bonds of friendship between India and Bangladesh.
Geopolitical Implications in Bangladesh for India
South Asia's geopolitical environment is changing rapidly. Bangladesh is now at the center of China and India's strategic rivalry. The combined military exercise "China-Bangladesh Golden Friendship 2024," which featured hostage rescue scenarios and anti-terrorism operations, is one recent event that highlights this change.
Strategic and Security Concerns:
The increasing number of Chinese military exercises and the provision of advanced military hardware to Bangladesh, including submarines and fighter jets, heighten security concerns for India. These developments enhance China’s strategic presence in India’s immediate neighbourhood, posing threat to India by potentially enabling Chinese military operations in the Bay of Bengal, thereby disrupting the regional balance of power.
Economic Competition:
China’s substantial investments in Bangladesh under the BRI, totalling over $38 billion, significantly overshadow India’s economic engagements. These investments, which include energy, connectivity, and infrastructure projects, may lessen India's economic power and influence in Bangladesh.
The growing trade volume between China and Bangladesh, which reached $25 billion, exacerbates the trade imbalance in favour of China, potentially sidelining Indian exports and economic influence in the region.
Bangladesh's heavy reliance on Chinese loans for BRI projects raises concerns about a potential "debt trap." Large-scale infrastructure projects often come with opaque loan terms and high-interest rates. If Bangladesh struggles to repay these debts, China could gain significant leverage over the Bangladeshi economy, dictating future policy decisions or even acquiring strategic assets. This economic dependence could limit Bangladesh's ability to pursue independent economic policies or forge closer ties with other partners like India.
China's dominance in infrastructure development projects could crowd out Indian companies, hindering opportunities for regional economic cooperation and knowledge sharing. Additionally, BRI projects often prioritize Chinese labor and materials, limiting opportunities for Bangladeshi businesses and skilled workers to participate fully.
Political Influence:
China is contesting India's historical ties to and influence over Bangladesh by its steadfast backing of the Awami League, the ruling party in Bangladesh, and its non-interference in domestic affairs.
India's capacity to retain good relations with any government, no matter which party is in power, is impacted by the geopolitical rivalry that affects Bangladesh's elections, as China and India compete for control over the political landscape.
China has developed tight bilateral ties with nearly every South Asian state as it has become one of the world's most powerful economies. Over the past ten years, China has surpassed India as Bangladesh's top commercial partner. The two nations have also continued their tight security collaboration because China is Bangladesh's main supplier of defense equipment.
Perhaps the most concerning aspect of China's strategy is the cultivation of an "all-weather ally" image. China's robust economic and military ties with Bangladesh create a perception of unwavering support, contrasting with India's occasional tensions with Bangladesh on issues like water sharing and border disputes. By positioning itself as a reliable partner regardless of the Bangladeshi government in power, China undermines India's ability to maintain a strong relationship.
The upcoming Bangladeshi elections will be a turning point. Can India shed its old skin and project itself as a future-oriented partner? Or will China's carefully crafted persona of a non-interfering, reliable ally reshape the political landscape? The answer to this question will not only impact India-Bangladesh relations but also influence the entire geopolitical calculus of South Asia. While China's short-term benefits are alluring, long-term strategic concerns and the potential pitfalls of debt dependency cannot be ignored.
India, which seeks to retain its own hegemonic position in the South Asian area, is not fond of this kind of cooperation.
From the 1971 Bangladesh War of Independence to current trends, the historical connections between the two countries have grown deeper and deeper, resulting in an ever-widening scope of collaboration. Meanwhile, Bangladesh has become India's most valued neighbour due to its strong eco-political position and advantageous location, which have made the nation a hub for connectivity and trade throughout South Asia. It has also created a plethora of chances for the two countries to work together toward sustainable development.
Furthermore, Dhaka's significance to New Delhi's strategic goals has grown exponentially in an era of a changing geostrategic environment, where major powers are once again courting littoral states in the Indo-Pacific region. This calls for resolving the outstanding issues and forging a strong partnership that could serve as an example for bilateral relations.
India places a great deal of significance on Bangladesh, both strategically and economically. Therefore, India's foreign policy should be guided by brotherly ideals that ensure there is never, even slightly, a rift between it and its only trustworthy ally in the area. India must maintain a good relationship with Bangladesh in a pluralistic international system, and it will be counterproductive to India's interests if that relationship is even slightly altered, let alone changed. July 13, 2024
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