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by This article compares the historical and present features of India's connection with the Maldives. The study investigates the cultural, economic, and geopolitical factors that have shaped the connection between these two countries. It also investigates how they negotiate their geopolitical difficulties and how India perceives Maldives as a critical partner to fight China's influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
Historical Overview
The Maldives has a rich history of cultural exchange, with strong linguistic and cultural connections to India. During the era of British colonial rule, the Maldives had diplomatic relations with British India. After gaining independence in 1947, the Maldives established diplomatic ties with India. In 1954, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru's trip to the Maldives marked a meaningful initial engagement that laid the groundwork for cooperation in the post-colonial era. In 1981, the Friendship Treaty further solidified diplomatic relations between India and the Maldives, emphasising mutual assistance and cooperation, especially in matters of defence.The agreement remains a significant deal that has impacted the progress of the two countries' relations over time. Previously, the Indian Navy played a crucial role in assisting the Maldives in recovering from natural disasters. Notably, Operation Cactus saw the Indian military intervene to successfully thwart a coup in the Maldives in 1988. Shared religious and linguistic backgrounds have fostered strong cultural ties between India and the Maldives. Historically, the Maldives has played a vital part in the trade routes connecting Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent, involving the exchange of commodities such as coconuts, spices, and textiles.
Current Developments
Since assuming the presidency of the Maldives, Mohamed Muizzu has created a strain in the relationship between India and the Maldives. Throughout his election campaign, Muizzu advocated for the concept of "India Out." His actions as president have raised doubts about his commitment to maintaining friendly relations between India and the Maldives. He has issued a directive for the complete withdrawal of Indian forces from the island nation despite their presence for providing non-offensive aid and assistance using aircraft such as Dhruv and Dornier. Muizzu's leadership has chosen a pro-China stance by strengthening ties between China and the Maldives, which is motivated by China's strategic interests and may jeopardise India's strong alliance with the Maldives. Following Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the Indian archipelagos of Lakshadweep, a diplomatic row has erupted.
The unprovoked derogatory comments of Maldivian ministers on the Indian PM described him as a “clown”, “terrorist” and “puppet of Israel” on social media platform X, in response to a video promoting tourism in Lakshadweep, an Indian Union territory in the Arabian Sea.
Now, citizens have started the ‘#boycottMaldives’ trend in India. This led to most Indian tourists appearing to be heading to Sri Lanka after a diplomatic row between India and the Maldives. As a result of this, Sri Lanka received more tourists than Maldives in January 2024. The Maldives Association of Travel Agents and Tour Operators (MATATO) expressed its intention to collaborate closely with the Indian High Commission to bolster tourism initiatives as India remains one of the vital markets for tourism.
Areas of Geopolitical Collaborations
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| Strategic Importance of the Maldives
The Maldives hold a critical geopolitical position in the Indian Ocean region, serving as a hub for maritime travel, migration, trade, and conflict. Despite its small size, the nation plays a significant role in the global economy due to its historical positioning. Spanning an impressive 960-kilometre-long submarine ridge from north to south, the Maldives forms a substantial barrier in the heart of the Indian Ocean. Maldives offer two safe passages for ships traversing the northern and southern parts of the island chain which holds a strategic importance. The sea routes known as sea lanes of communication (SLOCs) are extremely important for sea trade connecting the Gulf of Aden and the Gulf of Hormuz in West Asia and the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia. The Indian Ocean is a vital route for global trade and energy transportation. The increased maritime economic activity in the Indian Ocean has heightened geopolitical competition due to China's geopolitical interests and logistical constraints in the Indian Ocean that have resulted in an expanded presence in the area with Maldives playing an important role due to its vital marine geography. The Maldives' proximity to regional shipping lines offers it a valuable toehold. The strategic importance of the sea lanes near the Maldives is evident in the context of global maritime trade, with almost 50% of India's external trade and 80% of its energy imports passing through these westward SLOCs in the Arabian Sea. In spite of the recent political turmoil in the Maldives, the democratic system in the Maldives has successfully weathered this crisis. India continues to be a dedicated ally in the progress of a secure, flourishing, and harmonious Maldives, as evidenced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s inaugural trip to the Maldives at the start of his second tenure.
| Maritime Security Cooperation
In the early 1980s, there was a notable increase in the importance of security collaboration between India and the Maldives. In 1988, when a coup attempt took place in the Maldives, India promptly responded with Operation Cactus, effectively thwarting the coup and safeguarding the Maldivian government. This intervention established the foundation for future collaboration between the two nations and showcased their joint security endeavours. India has actively participated in various operations geared towards aiding those in need. These operations encompass search and rescue missions, hydrographic mapping to bolster maritime navigation and safety, and initiatives to bolster the country’s awareness of its maritime domain. The Maldives possess the potential to become a significant partner in efforts to counter China’s dominance in the Indian Ocean. Furthermore, India has been offering essential assistance in the form of humanitarian aid and disaster relief to aid those impacted by unexpected events and natural disasters. The security collaboration between the Maldives and India has been significantly influenced by common security interests, such as piracy, maritime security, and regional stability. To tackle these concerns, protocols for sharing information, including joint military drills and regular dialogues, have been established. In April 2016, a comprehensive Defense Action Plan was also signed to enhance defence partnerships. Moreover, Indian military personnel support rescue operations and offer combat and reconnaissance training to Maldivian troops.
| Regional Alliances & Cooperation
The membership of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) includes both India and the Maldives, demonstrating their commitment to regional cooperation and addressing shared challenges. Within SAARC, both nations actively contribute to initiatives spanning environmental concerns and economic development. The relationship between the Maldives and India is situated within the broader context of dynamics within the Indian Ocean region. As participants in the Indian Ocean Rim Association, both countries engage in discussions and initiatives aimed at enhancing maritime security, fostering economic collaboration, and promoting stability in the area. India and the Maldives also engage in various joint initiatives within multilateral organisations, such as the Commonwealth and the United Nations. The importance of a stable and collaborative regional environment is emphasised by their joint efforts in these forums, aligning with broader regional and global ambitions.
Economic Cooperation
| Investment and Public Diplomacy
Since February 1974, the State Bank of India has played a crucial role in the economic advancement of the Maldives by providing financial assistance for the expansion of island resorts, the exporting of marine products, and business endeavours. In 1981, a trade pact was established between India and the Maldives, allowing for the export of vital commodities, which has significantly contributed to strengthening the relationship between the two countries. India renewed the three-year quota agreement for the export of nine essential goods to the Maldives without any restrictions in July 2021. In 2021, the bilateral trade between India and the Maldives surpassed $300 million for the first time, reaching an impressive $323.29 million.The trade saw a growth of over 31% compared to the previous year. The Maldives hosts the second largest expatriate community, with over 29,000 individuals from India. A significant number of medical professionals, such as nurses, doctors, and educators in the Maldives, are Indian nationals. A significant percentage are employed in tourism-related industries. People from Kerala and Tamil Nadu have historically been in close contact with the Maldives through trade, which continues to this day, where Indian professionals and other workers contribute to the Maldivian economy and society, demonstrating how two countries can flourish through interpersonal exchanges.
| Tourism Cooperation
The Maldivian economy relies heavily on its tourism industry, which is the primary source of foreign exchange earnings and government revenue, contributing directly to approximately 75% of Maldives' GDP. In 2023, India's tourism brought in a value of $380 million to the Maldives. In 2018, India held a market share of over 6.1% (90,474 visitors) and was ranked as the fifth-largest source of tourists to the Maldives. However, in 2019, India moved up to the second position with almost double the number of arrivals compared to 2018. Despite the challenges of the pandemic, with around 63,000 Indian tourists visiting the Maldives in 2020, India remained the largest source market for the Maldives. Although the number of tourists from India to the Maldives decreased by about 40% during the January-March 2024 period due to insulting remarks made by Maldives officials about the Indian Prime Minister, the situation in tourism is now returning to normal.
In the current bilateral relations between India and Maldives, there are increasing geopolitical tensions. Regardless of who is in power, New Delhi will continue to engage with Male. It is hoped that the leader of Maldives will respond to India's accommodating policy by showing respect for its sensitivities. Mr. Muizzu hopes that by accepting the invitation, there is an opportunity to strengthen bilateral ties with India and improve the country's economy, especially with approximately 65% of Indian EXIM loans still pending and the possibility of additional grants and concessional loans. It should be noted that this doesn't mean Mr. Muizzu has adopted a pro-India policy. While he seeks to deepen partnerships with other countries, his relationship with China remains unchanged. Regular high-level exchanges are still maintained by both countries to strengthen their bilateral relations in various geopolitical areas. However, there seems to be a shift in his awareness that completely isolating India is not feasible. It appears that he now sees the advantages of balancing and leveraging one country against the other instead of choosing sides.
References
1 Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. (2023a, September). India‐Maldives bilateral relations. MEA. https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/Bilateral-Brief-Unclassified-March-2024.pdf
2 Zahir, A. (2021a). India–China rivalry in the Indian Ocean: emergence of a new Indo-Maldives strategic dynamic. Journal of the Indian Ocean Region, https://doi.org/10.1080/19480881.2021.1878584
3 AlJazeera. (2024, January 7). Maldives suspends three officials for insulting Indian PM Modi.
4 Padmanabhan, K. (2024, January 8). Amid India-Maldives row, Israel says it wants to collaborate for Lakshadweep
development. ThePrint
5 Knoll, E. (2018, October 24). The Maldives as an Indian Ocean Crossroads. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Asian History.
6 Sagar, P. R. (2024, January 15). How military withdrawal from Maldives will impact India’s strategic interests. India Today.
Muizzu's moves are really causing a stir. Balancing between India and China is going to be quite a task for Maldives. But nevertheless it is going to be interesting to see how he manages the economic ties with India while keeping China close. Any of his move will be reshape the regional dynamics. Good research and content.
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