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by This could be the end of the most historic political force in Britain.
Commentary by Abhinav Nambeesan | Edited by Muskaan Mir | Election Watch
Research & Publications Division
Research & Publications Division
After months of speculation, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak finally called the general election¹, with the date set for 4th July and with King Charles III having dissolved Parliament accordingly. The topic of when the election was to be held had been highly debated for several years, especially after the disastrous premiership of Liz Truss, which was the shortest in all of British history. Both the British left and the general public had been clamouring for a general election since 2022 when Sunak became Prime Minister. Previously, he had been twice removed by his predecessor from assuming leadership of the government; when he finally became the PM, it was not because he was elected by the Conservative Party membership but because his rivals dropped out of the race. A considerable segment of the population believed that he did not have a mandate from the people to implement his policies, which was why the demands for an election had been unwavering since he came to power.
The UK law made it such that the earliest possible election would be held in January 2025, but Sunak had been expected to call it earlier in the autumn of this year. Albeit incorrectly, some speculated that the election would coincide with the local poll on 2nd May. The actual date came as a surprise to most, including Sunak’s fellow party members. David Cameron, the former Prime Minister and current Foreign Minister, had been on a trip to Albania to discuss the nations’ joint efforts to tackle illegal immigration but was forced to rush back because of a surprise Cabinet meeting² where Sunak informed the Cabinet of his intentions to call an election in a highly unanticipated manner.
The abrupt announcement was most likely motivated by the release of official figures that showed that the rate of inflation had fallen to a three-year low, in response to which the Bank of England indicated that it might lower interest rates. Additionally, a surprise election could potentially stump opposition parties; while Sunak had time to prepare his electoral strategy, opposition leaders would now scramble to formulate a strategy and bridge internal divisions. Sunak’s decision has been met with disapproval by many of his own party members, especially those who wished to wait until more favourable economic conditions materialised in a few months. Trailing the Labour Party since late 2021, the Conservative Party has become increasingly unpopular over the last few years. Recent polling indicators suggest matters turning for the worse particularly in September and October 2022, during the Liz Truss debacle. Since then, the Conservative Party has worked assiduously to avoid an ‘electoral extinction’³ that might lead to their gravest defeat since 1832, and possibly of all time.
Take a look at each major party and their different stances on key issues this general elections below.
The Conservative Party
Led by: Rishi Sunak
The Conservative and Unionist Party— often nicknamed the Tory Party— is one of the oldest political parties in the world, tracing back all the way to the 1830s. As a dominant party at the national level since the 1920s, they have pursued social conservatism combined with pro-business policies. Since coming to power in 2010, they have cycled through five Prime Ministers, with the past few years being marked by instability. They had formed the government in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis; they initially practised “austerity politics” by cutting spending and taxes to drive up economic growth.
For the rest of the decade, the Conservatives were almost entirely occupied in resolving Brexit which caused a great deal of infighting and polarisation within the party— that was until February 2020, when the UK formally exited the European Union under the leadership of Boris Johnson. He faced multiple scandals in the forthcoming pandemic with the most notable being “Partygate” where he was alleged to have held many parties⁴ in his residence during the lockdown. The Tories subsequently fell behind the Labour Party in the election polls post December 2021, and Johnson’s resignation came in July 2022.
His successor Liz Truss pushed for big tax cuts to deal with low economic growth, but these financial measures turned out to be an unmitigated disaster;⁶ the markets collapsed and the value of the Pound Sterling crashed, necessitating an intervention by the Bank of England to protect the currency. This economic catastrophe made the Conservatives unreliable in the eyes of the public and caused their collapse in election polls.⁷ Liz Truss was forced to resign just 44 days after taking office, making hers the shortest premiership in British history. She was followed by Rishi Sunak, Boris Johnson’s Chancellor, who has tried to position himself as a more moderate and responsible candidate hoping to restore credibility on an issue his party generally performs well on. He has focussed on immigration to attract more centrist voters, but failures to deal with economic issues have left him and his party in a terrible position, especially in comparison to the opposition, led by the Labour Party.
The Labour Party
Led By: Sir Keir Starmer
The Labour Party is not nearly as old as the Conservatives, emerging in 1900 out of socialist and trade unionist movements. Through the 20th century, the Labour Party evolved from an electoral vehicle for the leftist movement to a competitive force in British politics, and they won several elections with notable overwhelming victories in 1945 and 1997. The latter was especially remarkable with the party winning 418 seats, making it the biggest landslide and the first time a party crossed 400 seats in Parliament in modern British history. Tony Blair, the leader at the time, was responsible for many key policies and reforms, including the creation of regional governments in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and London, the expansion of welfare policies, and the enshrining of human rights into law. After his resignation in 2007, his successor Gordon Brown was forced to deal with the global financial crisis, which was the big reason why the Labour Party lost in 2010 to the Conservative Party.
Blair’s successors were largely unsuccessful. A key leader was Jeremy Corbyn whose term was defined by criticism of his own party for being too moderate. This cause a leftwards shift of the party in the second half of the 2010s, but Corbyn was criticised for pandering to the radical left and not the more centrist UK public. After a big defeat in 2019, fought almost entirely on the issue of Brexit, he resigned from leading the party.
Blair’s successors were largely unsuccessful. A key leader was Jeremy Corbyn whose term was defined by criticism of his own party for being too moderate. This cause a leftwards shift of the party in the second half of the 2010s, but Corbyn was criticised for pandering to the radical left and not the more centrist UK public. After a big defeat in 2019, fought almost entirely on the issue of Brexit, he resigned from leading the party.
Keir Starmer
Corbyn was replaced by Sir Keir Starmer in April 2020, who previously worked in the public prosecutor’s office; after becoming an MP in 2015, he led the shadow Cabinet where he shaped Labour’s Brexit plans. A self-described progressive, he is more centrist on economic and social policies than Corbyn. In the four years under his leadership, the Labour Party has returned to a central alignment, seeking to broaden the appeal of the party. Despite not being very popular among the public, but the Partygate scandal presented itself as a significant opportunity to criticise the government,⁹ which he did by delivering flamboyant attacks in Parliament. His clever remarks boosted his fame as the Tories saw a decline in public approval. The Labour Party has continued to lead in the election polls since December 2021, and has maintained a 20-point lead over the Conservatives since Truss’s resignation.
The Key Issues
The outcome of the general election will be influenced by several key issues that both the Conservative Party and the Labour Party have distinct stances on.
The Economy
The cost of living has been on the rise ever since the 2008 financial crisis, making basic necessities like food and electricity unaffordable for the British public. The prices of energy and housing are considered to be especially egregious. The youth has experienced the worst hit in this regard. In general, disposable income has become a luxury with millions living paycheck to paycheck. Both parties have voiced their intent to improve this situation.
The Conservatives have historically been perceived to have sensible economic management and fiscal responsibility, Cameron’s austerity politics and the financial disaster of the Truss premiership have led to the loss of their economic credibility. To remedy this, Sunak has proposed cuts to various welfare programmes in his manifesto; he hopes to create more disposable income by implementing tax reductions as well. The Tories also aim to lower individual contributions to the national insurance as well as introduce a ‘triple-lock plus’ on pensions which will ensure their ineligibility for taxation.
Labour seeks wealth creation by fostering investment across public and private sectors, addressing a long-standing need of the UK economy. The party plans to change the status of non-domiciles¹¹ so that wealthy individuals holding such status pay appropriate taxes; they also propose imposing a VAT on private school fees which are predominantly paid by the rich. Labour has also promised 650,000 jobs by 2030 with a £24 billion investment into green energy initiatives. The party also promises to reverse austerity measures and fund all sectors of government by taxing the wealthy.
Housing
Since 2008,¹² the housing crisis has primarily been characterised by a lack of supply unable to keep up with the increasing demand. This is mainly because a 1947 law vests the authority to regulate constructions in local authorities, requiring landowners to obtain their permission even to build on their own property. Private establishments have been significantly restricted since post the 1980s prior to which housebuilding, especially for the lower and middle classes, fell under the ambit of the government. Today’s crisis can be attributed to a change in this scheme under the Thatcher government.
The Conservatives hope to create 1.6 million new homes— notably just 0.1 million more than Labour’s target— and want to re-introduce the ‘Help to Buy’ scheme, which gives first-time home buyers a government loan. While the party has said that it would ban no-fault expulsions for renters, it also wants to make it easier for landlords to evict people for “anti-social behaviour.” The Tories want to abolish the ‘stamp duty’ i.e., the tax paid on high-value homes for first time buyers for homes up to £425,000, which could reduce financial barriers for the youth.
Labour promises to build 1.5 million homes over the next five years— or 300,000 homes a year— and states that development has been hampered by strict planning rules; the party has hence committed to introduce systemic reforms to the planning rules and bureaucracy centred around the building of houses. It seems like Labour seeks to tackle the problem of supply directly while introducing reforms that would make building much easier in the future.
Immigration
The 2015 migrant crisis— which saw hundreds of thousands of refugees flee wars in the Middle East to arrive in Europe— significantly increased the anti-immigrant sentiment in the UK, ramping up support for the Conservatives as well as other right-wing parties. There has been much speculation about this sentiment having fueled the Brexit vote, following which the Conservatives also shifted rightwards on the issue. In this election too, immigration has emerged as an important issue¹³ as refugees continue to enter the country through legal pathways as well as on small boats across the English Channel.
The Conservatives intend to take on a harsher stance, promising to impose a legal limit on all migration into the UK which will decrease every year; they claim will protect public services, despite research suggesting otherwise. Sunak also has promised to continue the Rwanda Plan, a government initiative to relocate all asylum seekers to country by airplane and process their applications there. So far this has been highly unsuccesful, but Sunak remains persistent.
The Labour Party plans to scrap this scheme, deeming it expensive and unnecessary. They propose a new ‘Border and Security Command’ instead to combat illegal immigration and process asylum claims faster and more efficiently. The party will crack down on suspected people smugglers by granting investigators expanded authority to halt their activities. Overall though, Labour is more focused on economic issues, and their manifesto does not focus much on immigration.
Other Issues
The National Health Service, the UK’s healthcare system, has been in a state of disrepair more than a decade with the COVID-19 pandemic increasing waiting times and backlogs for treatments. Many have blamed the Tories’s austerity politics for this. However, neither party has included healthcare as points of central focus in their manifestoes, perhaps as the healthcare system for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland is independent of the NHS in England.
Climate change has been an increasingly contentious issue for the youth especially, and both parties have assured their commitment to achieving net-zero carbon emissions at some point in the future. Labour has promised massive amounts of investment into the sector, including ones to upgrade the country’s homes to be more energy-efficient and capable of adapting to the electricity grid of the future. It has also promised to ban the sales of all petrol and diesel vehicles after 2030.
Foreign and defence policy has been somewhat important to both parties, though domestic reforms have assumed centre stage. Even so, both parties have committed to the UK’s position in NATO, spending more on defence and maintaining good relations with the EU and US.
The debate on LGBTQ+ issues has been a talking point, especially issues of transgender people. Keir Starmer has historically tried to position himself more as a moderate on this issue, but Labour has as a whole committed¹⁴ to making it easier to legally transition and has also promised to ban gay conversion therapy. The Tories have meanwhile pushed an anti-trans rhetoric, saying that they wish to offer protections only on the basis of biological sex, and not legal gender.
What could the result be?
At this point, it is almost certain that the Labour Party will be forming the next government, with Sir Keir Starmer as the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
Political analysts are now concerned with how large their majority will be. Poll predictions peg their seat share anywhere between 380 to 450 seats, but it is entirely possible for Labour to break Tony Blair’s 1997 record. This would give Sir Kleir’s government significant room to pass important policies and constitutional reforms, but it remains uncertain whether they would prove effective.
As for the Conservative Party, it is better to be cautious about predicting their fate, although they might face one of history’s biggest and most unprecedented losses. Even Sunak could lose his seat. As Reform UK continues to gain against them, there might be a large exodus of right-wing voters to their party, resulting in the Tories shifting to the center to appeal to a larger portion of the population. Conversely, a grave defeat might also result in the party shifting to the populist right, which might raise the chances of a merger with Reform; nonetheless, it is difficult to be sure about the outcome.
Ultimately, the UK is poised to undergo a massive political shift, potentially making these elections a landmark event for generations to come.
KEEP READING | ELECTION WATCH
References
Seddon, Paul, “Rishi Sunak announces UK general election for Thursday 4 July.” BBC News, 2024
Steerpike, “Cameron snubs Albania for impromptu cabinet meeting.” The Spectator, 2024
Islam, Faisal, “The inside story of the mini-budget disaster.” BBC News, 2023
“UK’s Labour Party has 19-point lead over Conservatives, Opinium poll shows.” Reuters, 2022
Mason, Rowena, “Labour leadership: Jeremy Corbyn elected with huge mandate.” The Guardian, 2015
Politico Poll of Polls- United Kingdom general election polls
“What does non-dom mean and how are the rules changing?” BBC News, 2024
“Why is Property so expensive in the UK in 2024?” Conveyo, 2024
Marx, Wilhelm, “Immigration is a big issue ahead of the U.K. elections, too.” NPR, 2024
sunak is the devil
ReplyDeletethe tories have ruined the uk
So, after all the speculation and anticipation, Sunak finally sets the election date for July 4th, catching everyone off guard. It’s crazy how this move seems aimed at disorienting the opposition while his own party isn’t too happy about it. Given the disaster under Liz Truss, it’s a risky bet whether this will help the Tories or lead to their biggest defeat yet. We'll see if this strategy pays off or turns into another blunder.
ReplyDeleteIt seems like the public’s decision was in the process of being made even before the elections were announced. Whether or not Sunak’s decision with regard to the election date will be effective is unclear as of now.
ReplyDeleteThe major shifts in public sentiment with regard to the Conservative Party led by Sunak, have been due to the economic drawbacks faced and the series of multiple scandals. Even as the Conservative Party attempts to capture the trust of the centrist voters, it might not be enough to overturn the decision.
Given the dissatisfaction with the current government, a major political shift might be the need of the hour to deal with the economic issues at hand. The Labour Party’s approach to the immigrant issue might become better formulated once they come to power. For UK’s citizens a change from the Conservative approach does seem more crucial now.