Conflict, Cooperation and Khalistanis: A retrospective analysis of Indo-Canadian diplomatic relations

After Trudeau formed the Canadian government in 2015, a significant percentage of the Indian diaspora within Canada created a subtle strain on the diplomatic relations between both countries as separatist movements surged. However, to promote the ‘Indo-Pacific strategy’ of collaboration and cooperation, relations between the two were improving through trade agreements. Canada wanted to increase its influence in the Indo-Pacific region and establish agreements with traditional as well as emerging markets like India. The joint threat posed by Beijing called for a strategic convergence with both India and Canada recognized. Things took a turn for the worse when Khalistani separatist propaganda started gaining traction on Canadian land. This article analyses the inconsistent developments in the diplomatic history of both countries, their concerns, the current conditions, and the challenging path ahead. 

Policy Brief by Manini Agarwal | Edited by Ajitesh Vishwanath

Research & Publications Division

Indo-Canadian relations have always been complex and multi-dimensional but the September 2023 allegations accusing the Indian government of being involved in the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian land have made the situation extremely tense. Ever since Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau claimed in the Parliament that Ottawa had reasonable and credible links proving the alleged involvement of Indian officials, he and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi have displayed mutual dissatisfaction with each other. While Trudeau proclaimed that India would be forced to address these allegations and negotiate instead of “blustering” its way through them, the Indian External Affairs Minister, Dr S. Jaishankar, has declared that the government will investigate the matter only if substantial evidence is found. However, neither side has jointly held talks on the matter. 

The US indictment alleges the involvement of Nikhil Gupta, who an Indian government employee allegedly hired to kill Nijjar. This indictment came a few months after Trudeau's allegations in the Canadian parliament. 

Timeline of Recent events:

| September 18, 2023 - Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a statement in the House of Commons of Canada (also by Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly later) alleging that Indian Government agents were involved in the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh separatist leader. 

| September 19, 2023 - These allegations were rejected by India.

| September 20, 2023 -  An advisory for Indian nationals and Indian students in Canada was issued. 

| September 21, 2023 - Visa services for Canadian nationals were suspended.

| October 26, 2023 - Visa services in four categories were resumed. 

| November 22, 2023 - E-visas for Canadian nationals in certain categories were resumed.

Historical differences in Ideology: During the Cold War era, relations between the two countries were extremely friendly; India was the largest beneficiary of Canadian external assistance. As per the Colombo Plan, Canada provided aid in the Indian civil nuclear program towards the peaceful usage of nuclear power. They collaborated in spheres of research and industry briefly until India executed its first nuclear test in Rajasthan. Friendly relations began deteriorating when the national interests of both countries were at odds with their diplomatic initiatives. Canada gaining membership in NATO went directly against the Nehruvian ideals of NAM. This conflict of interest was compounded by Canada’s political leanings towards the US Bloc in terms of its security interests. When India conducted its first nuclear test in Rajasthan, it created a wedge between the two countries. Canada viewed it as a staunch betrayal by India after having presumed that both countries had shared disapproval of nuclear arms and revoked nuclear cooperation with India. In the 1980s, when it became more important than ever for the two countries to reconcile their differences owing to the staggering influx of Indian immigrants in Canada, the Khalistani ideals of secession brewing in Canada created a major roadblock in the journey of diplomatic recovery.

Efforts towards Reconciliation:

India’s violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) by carrying out the nuclear test in Pokhran, Rajasthan, has been the subject of disagreement between the two. In 2010, former Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, managed to make headway in the resolution of the nuclear rift between the two countries during the G-20 summit. They were able to strengthen bilateral ties by once again joining hands in nuclear cooperation. However, changing regimes seeded inconsistency in India-Canada relations. Under the Harper government, bilateral relations saw slight improvements as trade relations were consolidated. In 2015, several Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) were signed in matters of science and technology, civil aviation, and space. Canadian PM Harper had been an admirer of the Modi regime and was determined to take measures to build trust between the two countries. When Trudeau visited India in 2018, perhaps in hopes of moving a step closer towards a trade alliance, he was not received by PM Modi himself which seemed to be a clear indication of the dissatisfaction surrounding Canada's alleged sympathy towards the Khalistani movement. During the same visit, Trudeau was bombarded with media criticism for his over-enthusiastic and disrespectful bhangra performance in the Canada House in New Delhi. The forthcoming issue of Punjab and the Khalistani movement fatefully intervened as well when Trudeau refused to meet the Chief Minister of Punjab, Captain Arminder Singh, because of his unabashed critique of Canadian tolerance towards the Khalistani movement. Arminder Singh retaliated by refusing to meet the Canadian Defence Minister, Harjit Singh Sajjan. Despite Canadian efforts, neither party has been able to reach any tangible diplomatic or trade agreement. The future of Indo-Canadian diplomatic relations remained ambiguous despite these visits as they did not produce any significant outcome indicating any form of strategic collaboration.

A Steep Decline:

There has been growing suspicion within India about the Canadian “sympathy” towards the Sikh-separatist movement. The G-20 summit is sufficient evidence to understand the degradation of Indo-Canadian diplomacy, where no bilateral talks formally occurred between the Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, and Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. Furthermore, the Modi government publicly declared its dissatisfaction with Canada’s reluctant approach to the surge of the separatist agenda, calling it “anti-Indian”. 

Ottawa has been attempting to pursue a strategic partnership with New Delhi ever since India gained independence in 1947. With India’s gradual rise as a powerhouse in Asia, Canada has expressed its interest in forging a working diplomatic relationship and being the “bridge” between the USA and India. However, India’s willingness for the same under the Modi regime has been rather passive. In September 2023, Justin Trudeau declared that Ottawa had been investigating the alleged involvement of Indian government officials in the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh separatist leader, and claimed that it had significant reason to link their involvement. Nijjar had been branded as a “terrorist” by India and was shot outside a gurdwara in British Columbia a few days later. These allegations were promptly rejected by the Modi government in India, which declared them “absurd” and “motivated”. This exchange kickstarted a political row, with India retaliating by asking Ottawa to downsize its diplomatic presence within the country. This expulsion of diplomats from both countries was followed by the suspension of visa services for Canadians by the Modi government.

What India has to say

Indian External Affairs Minister, Dr S. Jaishankar, boldly stated to the press that Sikh activism in Canada has been a longstanding concern for New Delhi. Considering the significant percentage of Indian diaspora residing in Canada and the sheer number of Sikh voters in the country, the separatist agenda transpiring within Canada was viewed as a threat by the Indian government. Jaishankar blamed the Trudeau government’s alleged prioritization of vote-bank politics for the Canadian tolerance towards the surge of separatist activism. The comments were in reference to the Khalistani parade organized in Ontario. Jaishankar said, “For us, how Canada has dealt with the Khalistani issue has been a long-standing concern because, very frankly, they seem to be driven by vote-bank politics.” 

The Road Ahead

The Khalistani protests set in Canada have been met with passivity by the Trudeau government which triggers reasonable suspicion that this reluctance indicates some form of agreement with the Khalistani agenda. There is growing concern that the sheer number of protests and parades organised by this secessionist group creates a very real territorial threat for India. Owing to the massive Sikh population residing in Canada, this secessionist agenda has the potential to develop into a security threat if ignored by either governments. The historical significance and motive of the Khalistani movement is embedded in Indian history but it cannot be perceived as an international concern. India has made its apprehensions abundantly clear on several occasions but the Canadian government has responded with utter silence. There have been several petitions raised in the Canadian parliament to consider these Khalistani protests as genocide by the opposition parties, the concern has therefore become unavoidable. Trudeau’s disappointing reaction has been a matter of disrespect and India has made it apparent that it will not tolerate unsolicited judgment over its domestic politics. 

For conditions to improve between the two countries, this matter has to be discussed to ease concerns for both parties. Canada’s unveiled attempts to boost trade relations in the Indo-Pacific region and meet its economic goals might be unnecessarily challenging without Indian compliance. On the other hand, there is a pressing need to establish a civil partnership with Canada and it would assist India in its interactions with the USA. Attention can be re-directed towards a mutually beneficial agreement while accepting that the secessionist agenda has gradually become involved in Canadian politics among the rising Sikh population. It has been reported that Canada made countless attempts to persuade members of the G-20 summit to address these allegations in the summit itself. The members decided against it, but had it been a topic of discussion, it would endanger American ties as well. 

Even as matters become worse, the strategic advantages between the two countries do not diminish. Greater sensitivity towards the concerns of both parties will help strengthen ties even if the road to recovery is long and arduous.

References

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