China’s Arctic exploration: a new Cold War site in the making?

China's growing involvement in Arctic affairs has become a focal point of international attention, reflecting upon a strategic interest that extends beyond its own geographical limits. As the northern frigid region undergoes significant environmental changes, China’s assertive position raises concerns over its geopolitics reminiscent of Cold War dynamics.

Commentary by Azma Khan | Cover Graphic by Asmita Maurya
Summer Research Intern 2024

The Arctic’s Strategic Significance:

Greenland glaciers are melting five times faster now than the rate at which they did 20 years ago, and the Lion of Asia has a keen interest in its potential. Although sharing no borders with the Arctic Sea and having no claim over its waters, the People’s Republic of China now defines itself as a “near-Arctic state” with the superpowers of the world drawing their attention to this region. 

The Arctic is home to approximately 4 million people, which may be small in comparison to other global giants, but they are a significant indigenous population of that area with deep-rooted history and traditions. Now they are facing the direct impact of the increasing temperature and changing climate which is the greatest threat to their livelihood, traditions and culture, as well as creating a new strategy for the Arctic, which happens to be China’s rival, the United States of America’s fourth coast.

China’s Strategic Objectives

This interest of China has its own significant geopolitical obligations. The Arctic region, long perceived as remote and inhospitable, has emerged as a critical area of interest due to its vast, untapped resources and evolving geopolitical landscape. It represents a massive reservoir of undiscovered energy sources. The rising global warming, which brings its own challenges and creates concerns, will be a turning point in regard to the Arctic's geopolitics. It is estimated that about 30% of the world's undiscovered fossil fuels reside at the bottom of the Arctic Sea. 

China's rapid industrialization and growing population have led to an insanely increasing demand for energy. This has made China turn to foreign sources to ensure energy security. In the unstable current scenario in regard to the red sea crisis, China's strategy is to diversify its energy imports and reduce its reliance on just Middle Eastern oil.

The melting of the Arctic open ups new shipping routes that will significantly reduce the travel time between Asia, Europe, and North America. The Northern Sea Route, for instance, can reduce the maritime journey from Shanghai to Hamburg by about 30%. This not only saves time and fuel costs but also enhances China's economic competitiveness in global trade.

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In spite of investing hefty in Arctic research to gain a better understanding of the environmental conditions and climate patterns of the region, the self-proclaimed title of near-arctic state has not gained any international organisation, but President Xi has already made his wish to be a polar power public. The only issue is that Beijing lacks any sovereignty over the Arctic and is in no position to do any commercial fishing or resource extraction operations in international waters.

China’s growing interest in the scientific research of the Arctic region is a very small part of its large scheme of the BRI initiative, which is the Belt and Road initiative. China wants its maritime route in the Arctic, which is often called the northern sea route, to become part of its new maritime silk road.

China’s bold claims and ambitions have put the US on edge in regard to China’s strategic interest and influence in the region. Russia, on the other hand, is a competitor who cannot oppose China's interests out loud and is trying to work as a partner with China instead of as a competitor to China's Arctic ventures.

The Impact of Russian Aggression and the China-Russia Partnership:

There are already eight countries that have territorial rights in the Arctic Circle: Canada, Finland, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, the Russian Federation, Sweden, and the United States. At the end of the Cold War, the political pressure in the Arctic region was somewhat mellow, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 dramatically altered the geopolitics of this area. The Nordic states, which had been neutral since the Napoleonic era, decided to apply for membership in NATO, abandoning their neutrality to seek the security of the world's most powerful military alliance, which is the USA.

In this whole equation, Russia will always try to limit the role of the US in the Arctic Circle, even if that means making a compromise with China. Since the invasion of Ukraine because of many sanctions from the US and EU on Russia, Russia has been seeking economic support from China. Despite this, China’s relationship with Russia in the Arctic is characterised by both cooperation and competition. The two countries have collaborated on major Arctic projects, such as the Yamal LNG project, which involves the development of significant natural gas reserves in the Russian Arctic and China's Silk Road Fund has signed an agreement to purchase a 9.9% stake. This partnership highlights not only their shared interests in exploiting Arctic resources and enhancing their strategic positions but also their codependency on each other.

However, the relationship between China and Russia is very complex and multifaceted. While they do cooperate on strategic projects, China's growing economic influence often places it in a dominant position relative to Russia. This economic leverage can complicate their partnership and influence regional dynamics. The competition for resources and strategic advantage in the Arctic adds a layer of complexity to their relationship, reflecting the broader tensions inherent in global geopolitics, which can create a very complex web of diplomatic relations in the future.

International concerns:

China’s interest in Arctic resources and its increasing involvement in the geopolitics of the region have definitely raised a lot of concern among climate activists and scientists who are afraid that this might make the region and its indigenous population exposed and vulnerable to exploitation. 

China's Arctic strategy involves navigating international norms and legal frameworks, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). While China has expressed its commitment, its assertive actions in the South China Sea have raised doubts about its adherence to international maritime laws.

As a reflection of its screwing influence in the Arctic circle, China was granted observer status in the Arctic Council in 2013. The Arctic Council, comprising eight Arctic states, plays a key role in regional governance and cooperation. As an observer, China participates in the Council's working groups and contributes to research and policy discussions, particularly on climate change and sustainable development.

America’s retaliation:

China has established bilateral and multilateral partnerships to advance its Arctic interests. Its strategic partnership with Russia includes joint ventures and closer ties with Nordic countries, with promising investments in infrastructure projects. In 2017 Greenland planned to build more airports to accommodate larger commercial aircraft, but they lacked funds. Eventually China agreed to fund it, with a condition that mandated construction to be done by a Chinese company. Greenland agreed but the US had to intervene at the last minute fearing it to be one of China's debt policies. The US reached out to Denmark and now Denmark is funding 2/3 of the project in Greenland making Greenland reject China’s offer. The USUSA has been trying to block China’s influence in the Arctic region, it understands the strategic importance of the area. The US even went a step further and became the first ever country to open its consulate in Greenland's territory.

In spite of America’s constant efforts of blocking China’s influence in the region, China's technological and scientific advancements have positioned it as a valuable partner in Arctic research. The country's research icebreaker, Xuelong (Snow Dragon), and its Arctic research station, Yellow River Station in Svalbard, Norway, are testaments to its capabilities and commitment to scientific exploration in the 

region. 

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China's interest in Arctic energy resources is driven by a combination of energy security, economic, scientific, and environmental motivations. The geopolitical implications of China's Arctic engagement are profound, influencing regional stability, strategic rivalries, and international norms. China's role in Arctic governance and global cooperation, particularly through the Arctic Council and bilateral partnerships, highlights its commitment to being a responsible stakeholder in the region. As the Arctic continues to gain significance in global geopolitics, China's actions and policies will be crucial in shaping the future of this strategically significant region, and India needs to act quickly. 

Implications for India:

As China advances its strategic interests in this critical region positioning itself as a keyplayer, India also must evaluate how these changes will impact its economy and defence strategy. China's control over infrastructure, such as icebreakers and port facilities along the NSR, could affect global shipping logistics. If major shipping lines shift routes to take advantage of the NSR, it could heavily alter existing trade patterns and impact costs for India”s export and import. 

The NSR reduces the journey from about 20,000 kilometres, via  Suez Canal to approximately 14,000 kilometres, extensively altering time and price for the traders. If this happens then the Indian exporters may face increased competition as European and Asian goods will become more readily available due to faster shipping time. This could impact the competitiveness of Indian goods in global markets, port businesses, necessitating adjustments in pricing and marketing strategies.

 

If China successfully develops Arctic oil fields, it could potentially reduce its dependence on the Middle Eastern, affecting global oil prices and market stability. Since India relies heavily on imported energy, any fluctuations in the global oil prices due to any future Arctic development could impact the energy costs and economic stability. The growing changes in the Arctic geopolitics could influence broader strategic calculations in the near future. As China strengthens its foothold there, it may leverage its influence in international forums and agreements related to Arctic governance, potentially sidelining Indian interests. It might also impact India’s future relations with the Kremlin that has been its friend in the worst since 1971.

China’s growing presence in the Arctic presents significant economic and strategic implications for India. But India must navigate these changes by adapting new trade strategies, engaging in international Arctic governance, and strengthening its strategic partnerships to safeguard its interests in this critical region. As the Arctic continues to change, India's proactive approach will be essential in addressing the challenges and opportunities presented by China's expanding influence.

References:

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2. Arctic Council. (n.d.). About us. Arctic Council. Retrieved August 10, 2024, from https://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/about-us

3. Council on Foreign Relations. (n.d.). Arctic resources and geopolitics: The race for energy and shipping routes. Retrieved August 10, 2024, from https://www.cfr.org/report/arctic-resources-and-geopolitics

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6. South China Morning Post. (2019, August 1). China’s icebreaker Xuelong leaves for Arctic expedition for scientific research. South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3011031/chinas-icebreaker-xuelong-leaves-arctic-expedition-scientific-research

7. Kaplan, R. D. (2020, March 24). The U.S.-China rivalry in the Arctic: Strategic implications. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/arctic/2020-03-24/us-china-rivalry-arctic

8. Sullivan, M. (2020, June 29). China’s Arctic strategy: What it means for the U.S. and the world. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/06/29/china-arctic-strategy/

9. Mollins, J. (2019, September 4). U.S. blocks China’s attempt to build Greenland airport. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-greenland-china-idUSKBN1Z10VX

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