The far-right surge begins in Austrian Legislative Elections

The European Union has been frequently making headlines recently with the success of right-wing populist Eurosceptic parties in France, Germany, Sweden and others. While the French legislative elections may have averted controversy, the results of the legislative elections in Austria certainly did the opposite.

An Election Watch Article by Abhinav Santhosh Nambeesan | Edited by Muskaan Mir
Research and Publications Division

The Freedom Party of Austria, yet another of the far-right populist parties that have emerged across Europe, have managed to do the impossible— winning the national elections. It is now possible for Austria to be led by what would become its first far-right government since the 1930s. Europe has reacted with horror to the most controversial member of Austria’s political system, who is seeking to redefine the direction the country goes, along with the continent of Europe as a whole.

Austria, having joined the EU in 1995, has always been a sort of outlier. With it, the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden carry the nickname “the Frugal Four¹” due to their cross-party fiscal conservatism and hesitancy to commit to large spending targets. Even so, it has always been relatively pro-EU and politically stable. Historically though, there have been several setbacks in Austria’s relationship with Europe.

A Brief History of Austrian Politics and a Background of the Election

While Austria has existed in various forms for around a thousand years, the state with its modern borders was established by the Treaty of Saint-Germain-en-Laye in 1919 that carved it out from the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and its modern republican system was established following the Second World War in 1955.

Like other Western European countries, Austria was and still remains dominated by the broadly centre-right party the Austrian People’s Party (OVP) as well as the broadly centre-left party the Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPO), with several minor parties also contesting. For several decades, these two parties almost entirely dominated the political system, with the largest minor party being the Freedom Party of Austria (FPO), which was, at the time, a rather moderate party, but still not very popular.

Formed in 1955, the FPO has been controversial since its conception, owing to its considerable section of former Nazis; during the decades following its founding and entry into the legislature, it struggled between its more liberal, fiscally conservative roots and the nationalist right wing. Despite the strong presence of ex-Nazis in its early years, the nationalist faction had not initially dominated the party.

1986 was a turning point for the FPO. Having significantly expanded, the nationalist wing finally gained control of the party with the election of Jord Haider as party leader, a man firmly aligned with the nationalist right. The party had been in a coalition with the SPO, and the Chancellor called for fresh elections, unwilling to include Haider in the legislative coalition. Nevertheless, the FPO formed a coalition with the OVP as quite a minor partner, and continued to drift rightwards, specifically focusing on being an anti-EU force in the country as well as acting against immigration.

By 1999, Austria had already joined the EU and had begun the process of entering the Eurozone, but the legislative elections that were held in that year could have seriously derailed that. Harnessing anti-EU rhetoric and general libertarian economic policies, the FPO managed to come second to the SPO, and for the first time in its history got into government by forming a coalition with the OVP.

Although the party did not solely control the Chancellorship, having a far-right government as the larger party in a governing coalition— one that was founded by a large number of former Nazis and was quite anti-EU— was quite controversial in the continent, and fourteen European countries imposed sanctions on Austria as a result.

The FPO was knocked back into third place in the 2002 elections, but remained prominent through the rest of the 21st century especially after the Eurozone Crisis and the Migrant Crisis of the 2010s. In 2017, it re-entered a coalition government with the OVP. Two years later, a massive political scandal called the “Ibiza Affair”² emerged when the leader of the FPO was exposed as having sought to help a fake Russian oligarch to take over the country’s largest tabloid and giving government contracts in return for positive coverage.

The FPO subsequently lost popular support in the 2019 elections, which resulted in a coalition between the OVP and the Green Party, which had not been entirely stable in the five years prior and had been facing widespread disapproval. In 2021, due to yet another corruption scandal, the Chancellor was forced to resign³, and Karl Nehammer became Chancellor— who remains in that position to this day. Corruption scandals continued to hit the government, and as inflation also remained high through 2022 and 2023, its popularity continued to suffer.

The OVP, in the aftermath of all these scandals, suffered immensely in the polls. Nehammer did attempt to resolve their woes, though as it eventually turned out was unsuccessful. Nevertheless, the primary gainers of the unpopularity were somehow not the SPO, the other major party in the country. The SPO had been experiencing much infighting, especially prior to and in the immediate aftermath of its leadership election⁴ where Andreas Babler was elected to be leader.

Babler can probably be described as a member of the ‘populist left’ and has repeatedly made several controversial statements especially concerning the EU, such as calling the EU “the most aggressive military alliance that has ever existed.” He is also quite pro-immigration at a time when the right has been using the subject to win votes across the continent. To say that Babler has not been able to capitalise on the OVP’s troubles is an understatement. Owing to the issue of immigration, most of those prospective voters flocked to the FPO.

Despite being the party that kicked off years of scandal and instability, the FPO had managed to rehabilitate its image by being the major anti-establishment and anti-immigration party in the period when Austria had sharply turned against immigration and when the government did not reflect the sentiment. With the SPO having elected an extreme left leader and the OVP being consumed by corruption scandals, the FPO was able to gain significant traction in the polls with its anti-elite message and promises to tackle immigration, a move that the Austrian public seemed to covet after years of scandal involving the establishment parties.

By far the most important issue for voters was immigration. The FPO continuously emphasised on issues of cultural integration of migrants and security, which the SPO largely failed to convince voters against with its pro-immigration leader. The FPO has historically been Eurosceptic and its continued criticism of the bloc has evoked comparisons to the AfD in Germany, RN in France and even Reform in the UK.

What was the ultimate result, and what will happen in the future?

On 29th September, Austrians went to the polls to elect the 183 members of its legislature with all of the EU looking on anxiously. In the end, the fears of Europe were realized⁵. The FPO, led by Herber Kickl, became the largest party, winning 57 seats and 28% of the vote— the first far-right party in the country to reach these heights since the 1930s. For a party founded by a large percentage of former Nazis, running on a popular right-wing platform and scepticism of the EU to win the election is a sign of where Europe is heading at this moment.

Despite all of its scandals, the OVP managed to come in second, winning 26% and 51 seats in the legislature. Although margins were close, it was still a bad result. The SPO, the other major party of the country, came in third, with 21% of the vote. Minor parties earned the rest of the 25% of the vote and seats.

Even though the FPO has emerged victorious, it is not clear if it will actually come to power. Its toxic brand has led to the SPO and other smaller parties rejecting any prospective coalition government with them, and the only party who are ideologically close enough for a coalition to be possible i.e., the OVP has also rejected forming a joint government. This is similar to the situation in France and Germany, where the emerging far-right parties have been rejected by mainstream parties.

However, just like in other European countries, even if the FPO is rejected and a grand coalition is formed between the OVP and SPO, it might just work against them. The two major parties are ideologically not similar, and any coalition will be racked with instability. Furthermore, it is unlikely to resolve the conditions that led to the FPO’s rise in the first place, such as the issue of immigration. There are only two options here: either the FCO forms a coalition with the OVP, or an SPO-OVP coalition forms the government.

How does this affect Austria’s foreign policy, and how does it matter to India?

The most significant issue in Austrian foreign policy is undoubtedly immigration and the EU's approach to managing it. The FPO has long been a Eurosceptic party, and  has directed its anti-immigration rhetoric towards the European Union, like parties like the AfD have done. Austria, already part of the ‘Frugal Four,’ would certainly become an issue to the internal functioning of the EU under an FPO government, like Hungary has become and Poland had been before Tusk came to power there. There would be obstruction on Austria’s part, and it would add to the internal strain on the European Union that has already been enforced by populist pressures.

If an OVP-SPO coalition is formed, it is almost certain to be unstable and plagued with internal conflict which will prevent the Austrians from being a strong force in the EU against populism in neighbouring Hungary and Slovakia, but will likely remain fiscally conservative as it has been.

Outside the EU, Austrian foreign policy is to be closely observed, especially with regards to Russia. The FPO, as had been revealed again during the Ibiza Affair, has a lot of ties and friendly relations⁶, which has been exceedingly controversial in Austrian politics. An FPO government is expected to be about as friendly to Russia as the Fidesz has been in Hungary, and could obstruct the EU in dealing with the Russian threat in the East and in helping Ukraine.

It is most certainly in India’s interests to be able to cooperate with the EU on issues such as climate change, mutual security interests against terrorism, and India also would benefit from moving in and preventing China from gaining a strong foothold in Europe through its Belt and Road Initiative in European countries like Greece, Italy and Austria itself. For this, not only does India need a Europe that would be strong as an economic force, but also one that is internally stable.

While Austria does not figure as a primary presence in foreign policy for India, this election implies that the EU will have to either deal with an unstable Austrian government that wouldn’t be able to make many fiscal commitments, or worse, a government that actively dislikes EU membership and is pro-Russia.

For the millions of Indian immigrants living in Europe⁷, the emergence of these right-wing forces that would destabilise the EU and push it towards anti-immigration creates potential danger to their livelihoods. Unfortunately, with anti-immigration sentiments being racially motivated, Indians are not likely to be spared from the rise in discriminatory attitudes across the continent.

The Indian government, due to relations both related to immigration and the economy, wants a stable EU, and this election result simply adds to the worries on both sides: that the shaky structure of the EU is going to prevent it from standing strong against Russian or Chinese threats to its economic and political power.

References

1. Kurz, Sebastian, “The ‘frugal four’ advocate a responsible EU budget.” Financial Times, 16th February 2024
2. Oltermann, Philip, “Austria’s ‘Ibiza scandal,’: What happened and why does it matter?” The Guardian, 20th May 2019
3. Karnitzschnig, Matthew, “Austria’s Sebastian Kutz steps down amid corruption probe.” Politico, 9th October 2021
4. Karnitschnig, Matthew, “Oops! Austria’s Social Democrats announce wrong winner of leadership contest.” Politico, 5th June 2o23
5. Kirby, Paul; Bell, Bethany; “Far right in Austria ‘opens new era’ with election victory.” BBC News, 1st September 2024
6. Wiederwald, Rupert, “Austria’s FPO under scrutiny for Russia ties.” dw.com, 21st May 2019