The Israel-Hezbollah Conflict: Something much larger to come?

A Crisis Watch Commentary by Abhinav Santhosh Nambeesan | Edited by Muskaan Mir

Research and Publications Division

When waves of explosions ripped across Lebanese and Syrian buildings, there was widespread confusion and fear about how it could have happened. Of course, it was quickly discovered that it was no accident- hundreds of communications devices, such as pagers and walkie-talkies, that had been used by members of the militant group Hezbollah had exploded. According to AP, it is well understood that Israeli military and intelligence forces¹ were behind the attack, and subsequent events have made that clearer.

Israel immediately faced a lot of criticism for this operation not only because it killed several children, but also because experts including the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights² said that rigging ordinary communications devices to explode in such a way was a violation of international human rights law, as it creates an inability to prevent civilian casualties.

The Israeli attacks last month were a massive victory for the country; firstly in terms of material gains owing to the deaths of many Hezbollah commanders, and secondly in terms of morale. Hezbollah, Hamas, and other groups in the region would now be constantly worried about a covert attack by Israel in this manner. In the aftermath though, tensions massively escalated in the region, as both sides have begun to launch large-scale attacks against each other. Intensification of violence of this kind could transform this conflict into one like that between Israel and Hamas.

On 23rd September, Israel bombarded southern Lebanon with airstrikes reportedly killing hundreds of people.³ Hezbollah responded despite suffering damages to its capabilities. Thousands of people have already been forced to flee the area, with the Israeli attack having reportedly wounded more than a thousand people. An attack of this scale has not been seen in many years, and it is unlikely for either side to de-escalate the situation any time soon.

On the 28th, Hezbollah officially confirmed that its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in one of the Israeli airstrikes⁴. This is hugely significant—Hezbollah is likely the most formidable anti-Israel force in the region, even more so than Hamas. With no leadership, the group may be incapacitated for an extended period of time.

Then, on 1st October, the already dire situation took a more severe turn: the IDF launched an actual ground invasion of Lebanon⁵—incidentally supported by the Lebanese military itself—in order to dislodge Hezbollah from southern Lebanon and establish a zone of control in the region to prevent further attacks from the militant group. Meanwhile, many more of Hezbollah’s leaders have been killed⁶ by Israeli strikes, and with the group’s communications being significantly compromised, it seems like Israel has managed to eliminate the capability of this group to attack the country.

Iranian involvement and the chances for all-out war

With Israel launching massive attacks on Lebanon and eliminating the leaders of Hezbollah, retaliation was imminent. It came on the same day as the invasion: Iran fired a large barrage of missiles⁷ at Israel. Although most of them were intercepted, this move was regarded to be the final step before war.

In the days after the conflict massively escalated in the Middle East, questions still remain about whether it would result in a full-scale war between Iran and Israel. Hezbollah has been Iran’s most powerful proxy group in the region; the past couple of weeks have been immensely destructive to the organisation and Iran’s influence in the region has certainly decreased.

All-out war between Israel and Iran is unlikely to occur as there is no land border between the two, and any conflict is likely to be limited to the two sides firing rockets at each other. During previous exchanges of rocket fire, countries like Jordan and Saudi Arabia have intercepted Iranian rockets launched to assist in shooting them down. Any war would therefore result in a similar scenario playing out.

While it is not known how long the Israeli incursion in Lebanon will last, it is likely to involve a continued conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, while the former disables the latter’s capabilities to fire rockets towards cities like Haifa and Tel Aviv.

References

1. Grantham-Philips, Wyatte; Biesecker, Michael; El Deeb, Sarah; Parvini, Sarah; “What to know about the two waves of deadly explosions that hit Lebanon and Syria.” Associated Press, 19th September 2024

2. Lederer, Edith, “Weaponizing ordinary devices violates international law, United Nations rights chief says.” Associated Press, 21st September 2024

3. Gritten, David, “Israeli air strikes kill 492 people in Lebanon.” BBC News, 24th September 2024

4. Mroue, Bassem; Lidman, Melanie; “Hezbollah confirms its leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike.” Associated Press, 29th September 2024

5. Copp, Tara; Baldor, Lolita C.; “US is sending more troops to the Middle East as violence rises between Israel and Hezbollah.” Associated Press, 24th September 2024