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An Election Watch Commentary by Abhinav Santhosh Nambeesan | Edited by Muskaan Mir
The Presidency of Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States, ended at noon on 20th January 2021, though not for a lack of trying on his part to avoid that. Even after the November 2020 election resulted in his opponent winning, even after various courts, including the Supreme Court, threw out his legal challenges, and even after his supporters stormed the US Capitol on 6th January to stop Congress from affirming the election results, he refused to accept that he lost, and has continued to do so despite never having any credible evidence of mass fraud.
The 2024 election is being contested over various issues of policy—the economy, abortion, immigration, the Gaza issue, etc. However, none of them are existential threats to the United States in any way; they are issues that have been debated for years, and have been fought over in many elections. This election is about much more than that. While Donald Trump is not the first President who has had a disdain for the guardrails on the office, he is the first to openly show it, propagate it, advocate for dismantling it, and to have an entire party that is firmly behind him in his quest to gather as much power and grandeur as he can. One thing is clear: for a stable international system, it is vital that Donald Trump not be elected to his second term.
A Background of the Election
Populism has had a long history in the United States, coming to the forefront during the 1890s when figures like William Jennings Bryan emerged to mobilise the people against big businesses and elite politicians. Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign and his first term were a repeat of that, as he used inflammatory language to whip up a populist frenzy around him, fueled by the anger of the people against the deadlocked political system and the stagnating economic situation that has proved disastrous for working-class voters. While several factors, including actual racist rhetoric, played a role in Trump’s election wins, it was mostly because of his appeal to white, working-class voters in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania who had been suffering from deindustrialisation and decline in unionisation. While Trump was unable to resolve¹ the struggles of the people in these states, he still managed to acquire tens of millions of incredibly loyal supporters, whom he mobilised to turn the Republican Party into the “party of Trump.” The party has continued to worship him even after he departed from office, and it was inevitable that he would win the nomination for the 2024 Presidential election, despite facing challenges from many prominent Republican politicians like Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, and Nikki Haley.
Trump lost re-election in 2020 to Joe Biden—the candidate of the opposition Democratic Party—most prominently due to his mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic, with Biden making promises that echoed Warren Harding’s 1920 campaign slogan, “a return to normalcy.” Trump and most of the Republican Party refused to accept the legitimacy of the election, saying that mass fraud had been committed, and made challenge after challenge to the results, all of which were rejected by the judiciary², including the conservative-controlled Supreme Court. It was only after Trump supporters stormed the US Capitol on 6th January 2021 that the Republican Party largely abandoned its contests, though Trump and his most loyal supporters continued to deny his loss.
Joe Biden’s term has been one of contradictions. On one hand, he has signed several massive pieces of legislation³ between 2021 and 2023 with the Democrats leading Congress, including the American Rescue Plan, the CHIPS Act, and his signature Infrastructure Bill, which is more than anything Obama was able to do in eight years. On the other hand, he has been one of the most unpopular Presidents in American history, not having a net positive approval rating since August 2021, as those on the left are very dissatisfied with his inability to pass more progressive legislation, while those on the right do not like such massive government action, with many seeing it as an addition to the already large national debt.
Matters took a turn for the worse in mid-2022, as inflation began to spike due to various factors, including the Russia-Ukraine War and the lingering supply chain shock caused by COVID. Polls showed that Republicans were about to win big in the November 2022 Congressional elections—the so-called “Red Wave.” However, that prospect was shattered in June, when the Supreme Court announced its ruling in the case Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization⁴, where it overruled the 1973 ruling in Roe v. Wade, announcing that the right to have an abortion was thereafter no longer covered by the Constitution, and states had the right to ban it. Subsequently, as many Republican states banned abortion either fully or partially, it became an issue that greatly mobilised women, and liberals as a whole.
Despite floundering economic conditions, great dissatisfaction against the Democrats, and the general decades-long trend of the ruling party losing House seats in the Midterm elections (i.e., the Congressional and state-level elections held in the middle of the presidential term), the “Red Wave” never materialised, perhaps singularly due to the abortion issue. While the Republicans narrowly took control of the House of Representatives, the lower house of Congress, the Democrats actually increased their control in the Senate, the upper house. The divided control of Congress meant that 2022 was the end of Biden’s legislative accomplishments, as the Republicans were unwilling to compromise on anything, in order to have their talking points for the 2024 election. Just days after the election, Trump announced that he was running for a second term in 2024⁵, and from that moment, the Republicans transformed yet again into the party of Trump.
It had essentially been decided from the moment Trump announced his bid that the 2024 election would be a contest between Trump and Biden, as there was almost complete surety that Trump would win the nomination, and it was a political convention that the incumbent President not be challenged by his party for his re-election. This was despite Biden’s persisting unfavourability in the country, and also becoming unpopular with progressives after the Israel-Palestine issue came into the forefront of American consciousness in October 2023. By March 2024, the Democrats had become further divided on the issue of Palestine, and on whether to support Biden or not. His inability to resolve the crisis caused him to come under fire from both the left and right, and with progressives deserting him,⁶ the Biden campaign had already been crumbling by June.
The debate between Trump and Biden that showed clearly to the country how painfully old and senile the latter had become essentially broke his campaign, and for the next few weeks, as the Democrats strongly debated whether they needed to stage an internal coup before the Democratic National Convention to forcefully remove Biden from the ticket, as it looked like Trump was sure to win. However, the entire election was flipped on its head on 22nd July, when Joe Biden announced he would not be contesting re-election⁷, essentially handing the nomination to Vice President Kamala Harris.
Very quickly, the entire Democratic Party lined up to support Harris, and the party seemed to become the most united they had been in many years. She quickly gathered tens of millions of Dollars in donations, and began to climb in the polls as she received a boost of excitement generated by the Democrats finally not fielding an 81-year-old. Trump was not happy, with many Republicans trying to claim that Biden had been replaced by the elite in a coup, though such attacks did not seem to have much of an effect. On 22nd August, at the Democratic National Convention, Harris was officially nominated to be the party’s candidate for President, with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz being nominated as Vice President.
The Swing States
The President will not be elected by popular vote; each state, along with Washington, DC, will hold an election on 5th November to determine who would receive that state’s electoral votes, and in December, all of those electors would officially vote for President. This system means that the vast majority of states are not in play. California will always vote for the Democrats, so its 54 electoral votes are going to go to Harris no matter what, while the 11 electoral votes from Indiana are going to go to Trump regardless of the national outcome. Because of this system, both candidates are focusing almost their entire energy on those states where the margins of votes are very small, so they can go either way. In 2020, the swing states that decided the election were Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. While other swing states existed, like New Hampshire, Ohio, and Florida, those states firmly went to one of the parties, and in 2024, are not considered to be swing states. The swing states for 2024 are the same as 2020, with the possible addition of Texas, though it is still expected to go for Trump.
Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania
As of late October 2024, Donald Trump has a narrow lead in all of the swing states⁸, though at this point the margins are so small that either may win in any of those states. Nevertheless, some patterns can be observed. Generally, the three Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania vote in the same way, with the last time any of them had diverged from the other two being in 1988. Of these, Pennsylvania, having 19 electoral votes, is the single biggest prize, and it is no wonder that it is being treated as the state that would decide the election. Elon Musk, now having firmly embedded himself in Trump’s campaign⁹, has focused heavily on trying to flip the state Republican, even offering $1 million to anyone who registers other voters in swing states every single day—though it has faced legal challenges.
Pennsylvania was, of course, the state in which Trump narrowly dodged an assassin’s bullet, but while initially it had seemed like it could significantly affect the election, it now looks like the attempt is not going to really work. On the Democrats’ side, they have the valuable endorsement of popular singer Taylor Swift, who is from Pennsylvania herself, and might motivate younger voters to turn out and vote for Harris en masse. Pennsylvania also has the large urban areas of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, which make it a state that the Democrats have a good chance in.
In Michigan, the Democrats are quite nervous about turnout among Muslim voters, who are quite present in cities like Dearborn, and might show their disapproval of the government’s policy towards Israel by not voting at all. In the primaries, dissatisfied Democrats showed their disapproval by voting ‘uncommitted¹⁰’ instead of Biden, and as prospects of a ceasefire continue to be bleak, it does look like turnout might be quite low. The city of Detroit, which is the largest urban centre of the state, also needs to turn out to vote in huge numbers if Democrats want to win the state.
Biden won Wisconsin by a margin of just 20,000 votes, which made it the closest of the three Midwestern swing states, and the Democrats are desperately hoping for big turnout in urban areas like Milwaukee, and turnout among pro-union working-class voters in other areas of the state. However, it is not seeming very likely that the Democrats have as good of a chance here, since the state is not dominated by a large urban area like Michigan or Illinois, its neighbours.
Probably the biggest reason why Kamala Harris chose Tim Walz as her running mate was because he is the popular Governor of Minnesota, which neighbours these three states, and he appeals to the same communities that dominate the three states. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania used to be part of the “Blue Wall” that were almost guaranteed Democrat states, but with the margins tighter than ever, Kamala Harris would be quite desperate to keep their support.
Georgia and North Carolina
Biden winning Georgia in 2020 was quite the surprise, and mostly occurred due to very high turnout in Atlanta, which is easily becoming one of the fastest-growing metro areas in the country¹¹ and has experienced even more growth between 2020 and 2024. North Carolina has several urban areas like Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, and others, but the Democrats would be relying very heavily on the large African-American populations of the two states. African-Americans constitute approximately 33% and 23% of the populations of Georgia and North Carolina respectively, and with both states experiencing population growth, the party will be hoping that they can bring out high turnout among African-Americans.
With Atlanta’s rapid growth , Georgia seems like it is achievable for the Democrats, and with a high black population too, it might seem like the state can be won. Also, Georgia is a state where the abortion issue is extremely sensitive, and with the Republicans increasingly supportive of a national abortion ban, the hope is that women of all colours would turn out in larger numbers than 2020.
In North Carolina, which was won by Trump in 2020, there is a prospect that his chances would be torpedoed by the Republican nominee for the state’s Governor, whose election is on the same ballot. Mark Robinson has a history of inflammatory and controversial comments, but his campaign essentially imploded¹² when an investigation by CNN led to a lot of his internet history being revealed, containing many extremely controversial comments. With Robinson having ruined his campaign, the Democrats are hoping that moderate voters might be swayed away from Trump by associating the Republicans as a whole with him. With growing urban areas, large African-American population, and a significant controversy within the Republican Party, North Carolina is one that the Democrats are favoured to win.
Nevada and Arizona
Biden won both states in 2020, with Arizona being the closest state that he won; however, they seem to be leaning Republican this time. Both are states where the Hispanic population is quite high, especially Arizona, and with Trump making gains among Hispanic men¹³ and the Republicans appealing more to the more conservative and religious Latino culture, the Democrats cannot take those votes for granted. At the same time, urban areas like Las Vegas and Phoenix are growing, which might make the Democrats more optimistic, though polls still show that Arizona might be likely to favour Trump, while Nevada might go to Harris.
Texas?
What the Democrats have been dreaming about for years is a “blue” Texas, a dream that can be realised if the state votes for a Democrat for President for the first time since 1976. In 2020, Texas was actually surprisingly close¹⁴, with Trump only winning 52% of the vote there. With massive growth occurring in metro areas like Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio, the Democrats might actually have a chance of closing the 600,000-vote gap. Their effort can also be aided by unpopular incumbent Senator Ted Cruz, who is up for election and might lose, which has the potential of dragging Trump down with him.
Even so, Texas is likely not going to be voting for Harris in this election, because she would need to gain approximately 300,000 votes in the state, though it is not out of the range of possibilities for the state to be in serious contention in 2028 or 2032.
What are the Major Issues?
The Economy
The economy has always been one of the most important factors in any election, and many remember the inflation of Biden’s term and might not like Harris’ economic policies, like extending the child tax credit. With prices of rent, food, and other necessities still quite high, and a housing crisis continuing, the Democrats are facing vicious attacks from Republicans. Trump, meanwhile, continues to use populist rhetoric by proposing high tariffs and other protectionist measures.
Peculiarly though, while it is undoubtedly an important aspect of the election, it might not be swaying voters towards either side as other issues would. Harris would continue to talk about the major investments that the Biden administration has been making, while Trump talks about immigration taking people’s jobs away, and why protectionist measures are needed. The economy might still be a very big factor in the Rust Belt states, especially of white, working-class voters.
Immigration
The Republicans have made immigration their single most important issue, having constantly stressed on it again and again, and for a good reason—polls show that the Republicans do quite well on immigration, as they advocate for mass deportations¹⁵ and a shutting down of the borders. Trump himself has been stoking the fires by talking about how he wants to deport every illegal immigrant in the US, while giving a very wide range of numbers for how many he thinks reside in the country.
In states like Arizona and Nevada, immigration is a big issue, and Trump seems to also be using it to target working-class voters in the Rust Belt by accusing immigrants of “stealing their jobs.” If the Republicans successfully make this the most important issue for Americans, then they very well may win the whole thing.
Abortion
Abortion is to the Democrats what immigration is to the Republicans—an issue which they are on the popular side of and which they can utilise to turn voters out to their side. The Republicans have become the firmly anti-abortion party, which is the unpopular side based on public opinion polls, leading to many people, especially women, flocking to the Democrats and turning out in huge numbers for them.
In 2022, when the Republicans were expecting a massive victory, the Democrats managed to stage a remarkable comeback, almost entirely due to their popular position on the abortion issue. Further, in various elections after that, in Virginia, Kentucky, and Ohio, the Democratic side performed beyond expectations. With Trump unable to distance himself from the radically anti-abortion position of the Republicans, abortion might give the Democrats a higher chance of victory.
The Gaza War
For the Democrats, who rely both on Jewish and Muslim voters to be a part of their voting bloc, the war between Israel and Palestine is a tightrope, which Biden and Harris have struggled a lot with. In Michigan especially, there are large numbers of Muslim voters, for whom the Palestine issue is the most important issue—and they might not even turn out to vote.
For young progressives across the country who see the Democrats complicit in what they see as a genocide, Biden’s mishandling of the war might be enough to dampen turnout, and result in Harris losing the election, especially in the Rust Belt.
Who has the better chance of winning?
The polls are neck-and-neck in this election, both nationally and in the swing states, and at this point, it is not clear at all who has the better chance of winning. Looking at the polls, it might seem like Trump has a good chance of winning at least enough swing states to get the necessary 270 electoral votes, but some trends also show otherwise.
Since the Dobbs decision that removed the constitutional right to an abortion, the Democratic Party has consistently outperformed the polls in virtually every election they fought, and as the extreme right of the Republican Party becomes more and more outspoken, it might result in voters turning out in larger numbers and giving the Democrats a win. If voters in very conservative states like Montana, Kentucky, and Kansas can vote to preserve abortion with big margins, the Democrats would not be too pessimistic regarding turnout in the swing states.
In the end, it is difficult to predict who will win, but given the consistent outperformance of the Democrats in previous elections, the probabilities might be leaning in their direction.
Why should the world care who wins?
Indians might ask themselves why the US Presidential elections matter, since India is not a US ally nor does it depend on American aid or military support like countries such as Ukraine do. However, it is firmly in the interest of India and the world for Donald Trump to lose.
A Trump presidency would mean much higher tariffs¹⁶ on all goods entering the US, and the US becoming much more protectionist in its trade policy. The Trump administration would be disdainful of multilateral interests and free trade agreements, especially with countries like India, which pose a threat to American manufacturing and service sectors.
Donald Trump is vastly more pro-Russia than any of his previous presidents, and as President, he does not seem to plan to fund Ukraine’s defence of its territory like Biden did. While Trump has a great hatred for China, American policy towards the nation would likely be limited to trade, and the US is likely to become more isolationist. Countries like India, which are threatened by Chinese expansionism, might find themselves hung out to dry.
And, much more importantly, the Republican Party’s conservative allies have developed a concrete guidebook for the next President to follow, called “Project 2025¹⁷,” which details radical plans, most importantly related to the bureaucracy. Under a Trump presidency, the US government would come under the total control of party loyalists, with all experts who oppose him or the conservative ideology subject to firing. Such a massive purge of industry experts from the government would turn the US government into an incompetent and handicapped institution, which would forfeit the expertise necessary to coordinate the largest and most complex organisation in the world.
With climate change becoming very important for the entire world, especially developing countries, a Trump presidency would be an utter disaster, as he himself believes that climate change is a “scam¹⁸” and his previous administration being close with oil and gas companies. A second Trump term would roll back as many environmental regulations as possible, which would significantly impact the rest of the world.
Countries like India thus must prepare for how to deal with a second Trump term, especially developing countries who would be negatively affected by his policies. A Harris victory would be good for global security and stability, for combating climate change, and for nations who desire a stable global order. That is why, for India, a Harris victory is the best outcome.
References
“Results of Lawsuits Regarding the 2020 elections.” Campaign Legal Center
“Roe v. Wade and Supreme Court Abortion Cases.” Brennan Center for Justice, 28th September 2022
Kurtzleben, Danielle, “Trump announces 2024 presidential run.” NPR, 15th November 2022
Wiseman, Paul, “Trump favors huge new tariffs. How do they work?” PBS, 27th September 2024
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