Escalation and an IRBM: The Russia-Ukraine Conflict Intensifies with New Missile Strikes

Last Thursday, Putin confirmed using a hypersonic ballistic missile against Ukraine in a strike in the city of Dnipro in response to the aggressive actions taken by Ukraine earlier this week. President Zelensky has condemned the attack as a severe escalation, reflecting on the extent and brutality of the ongoing conflict. NATO, following Russia’s strike, said that it would not deter its members from supporting Ukraine. The past week has witnessed a remarkable escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war, and it has taken on a more intense global character, as claimed by Putin. 

A Crisis Watch Report by Kiran | Edited by Muskaan Mir
Research and Publications Division 

Amidst the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed the deployment of an experimental ballistic missile with an intermediate-range hypersonic warhead by Moscow in the Astrakhan region of Russia. The missile Oreshnik, as named by the Russian military, was targeted at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, in the center-east of the country. Two civilians were injured due to the strike, and an industrial facility and a rehabilitation centre were damaged, as reported by the local authorities in the city. Putin claimed that Ukraine had no means of countering or even intercepting the new missile. Further, he added that Russia will respond just as decisively and in kind in the event of an escalation of aggressive actions, hinting at possible strikes at the military facilities of nations backing Ukraine in these actions. 

Ukraine initially claimed the missile used to be an Intercontinental Ballistic one based on its speed (13,000 kmph) and altitude, which Western officials later denied. They believe that Russia has only a few missiles of this kind. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy claimed the attack to be a violation of established international norms and that Ukraine now has the right to retaliate at military targets within Russian territory. He has asked for continuing international support the country has received in countering Russian forces to pressure them into making peace. NATO’s spokesperson, Farah Dakhlallah, said this attack would have no effect on the course of the conflict and accused Putin of trying to intimidate Ukraine’s allies. 

Last week, on Tuesday and Wednesday, Ukraine launched several long-range missiles targeting military sites in Russia. Ukraine used America's creation of Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and the British-French Storm Shadow Systems to target the Bryansk region and a Kursk command post, respectively. Two of the Storm Shadow missiles were shot down by Russian air defence systems, along with six HIMARS rockets and sixty-seven drones, as announced by the Defense Ministry. 

The Oreshnik (hazel tree in Russian) used a Multiple Independently-Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) system, which allows a single missile to launch multiple warheads while targeting different locations. Intermediate missiles have a range of 3,000 to 5,500 km, allowing Russia to strike anywhere in Europe or the Western US. The design of Oreshnik was based on Russia’s RS-26 Rubezh, an ICBM, but posed less threat comparatively. However, as stated by Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh, this new weapon could be redesigned to carry different kinds of nuclear or conventional warheads. RS-26 was one of the prime weapons to be developed into an Intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) for Russia’s IRBM program. Besides, two days before the attack, Russia ratified a revised nuclear doctrine that would lower the threshold for its use of nuclear weapons. This will allow a potential nuclear response from Russia or even conventional attacks that are backed by a nuclear power. 

US Reaction to the Attack 

Russia’s National Nuclear Risk Reduction Centre is said to have notified the US about 30 minutes before the launch, as part of the standard operating procedure. However, the US criticised the attack, calling the move dangerous and reckless. Ukraine had long sought President Biden’s permission to use long-range American missiles, which was granted a few days ago, as reported by a US official. This policy change was brought about in the face of the growing ties between Russia and North Korea and the exchange of air defense equipment and anti-air missiles and troops between the two countries. Besides, newly-elected President Trump has announced that he wants the war to end.  

Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, stated on Friday that the reckless actions taken by the West in supporting Ukraine by supplying weapons will be responded to. The US formally withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019, a nuclear disarmament agreement signed between the US and the Soviet Union in 1987, because Moscow violated the treaty by deploying a new type of cruise missile, which the Kremlin prohibited. The treaty required the two countries to eliminate their ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometres. In his speech after the Oreshnik’s launch, Putin said that the US made a mistake by unilaterally destroying the treaty under a far-fetched pretext. He added that Russia had committed itself not to deploy medium-range and shorter-range missiles, but now its actions would depend on the West's actions against the country. 

What to Expect Next? 

The UN called the strike another concerning development in the region. Based on the statements that heads and officials have made of both countries, the readiness to escalate their military strategies and weapons could be made out. Heorhii Tykhyi, the spokesperson of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, remarked that Russia does not seek peace and is trying its best to let the war escalate. Peskov, on the other hand, said that Russia is trying its best to avoid a nuclear conflict with Ukraine. The Russian Foreign Ministry has claimed the opening of a US missile defence base in Poland, part of NATO’s missile shield aiming to intercept short and medium-range ballistic missiles, as a step to undermine strategic stability in the region, and Russia has captured yet another village near Kurakhove on Thursday. Zelensky said on Friday that the country is working on developing new air defence systems with the help of its allies. These recent developments, inter alia, as feared by many, can lead to a broader confrontation between the two nations, potentially involving nuclear weaponry. 

References

• Sauer, Pjotr & Sabbagh, Dan. “Russian ballistic missile attack a ‘severe escalation’, says Zelenskyy.” The Guardian, 22nd November 2024. 
• Tarasova, Darya, et al. “New missile launch was response to "reckless decisions" of West, Kremlin says.” CNN World, 22nd November 2024. 
• Malenko, Anastasiia, et al. “Russia fired new ballistic missile at Ukraine, Putin says.” Reuters, 22nd November 2024. 
• Faulconbridge, Guy, et al. “Putin says Ukraine war is going global.” Reuters, 22nd November 2024. 
• “Russia didn't fire an ICBM towards Ukraine: Putin approved a Moscow-made 'Oreshnik' missile for the attack.” The Economic Times, 22nd November 2024. 
• “Russia attacks with intercontinental missile for first time in Ukraine war: Kyiv.” The Hindu, 21st November 2024.