India's Strategic Autonomy in a Multipolar World: Navigating Energy Security and Middle Eastern Alliances

The Israel-Palestine conflict has significantly disrupted international trade, and countries across the globe have been simultaneously sanctioning Israel and Iran to mitigate the ongoing crisis. India’s position in this global supply chain allows us to analyse its geopolitical stance with the Middle East. India’s foreign policy strategy on oil reflects a shift to strategic autonomy and a move away from traditional alliances. 

A MENA Desk Commentary by Sarah Jackson | Edited by Aishik Goswami

Research and Publications Division 

The Middle East crisis illuminates India’s geopolitical stakes due to its heavy dependence on oil imports. India is the world’s third-largest oil importer, relying heavily on the Middle East to fulfil this need. Given the absence of oil in India, its enormous population, and its rapidly growing economy, India has been diversifying its oil import sources, carefully navigating a multipolar international system. Recently, New Delhi has been systematically crafting an oil import strategy that frames India’s oil vulnerability as a strength. India’s repeated assertion of its liberty to pick and choose its oil suppliers can be seen as an affirmation of its sovereignty and independence from any political alliances, especially those dictated by the West.

India’s Calculated Stance on Russian Oil

As of 2024, Russia remains India’s most significant source of oil imports. This is amidst extensive Western sanctions imposed on Russia after it invaded Ukraine (Vickery Jr. and Cutler, 2024). The US, UK, EU, and Canada have imposed more than 16,000 sanctions on Russia, and its oil industry took a significant portion of these sanctions(Vickery Jr. and Cutler, 2024). Despite the West's stance on Russia, India remained neutral to Russia during this period (Vickery Jr. and Cutler, 2024). In fact, before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, India imported a mere 2% of its oil from the country, relying more heavily on its imports from the Middle East (Vickery Jr. and Cutler, 2024). After the Ukraine conflict, Russian oil accounted for nearly 30% of India’s oil imports, a significant increase. When asked about India’s geopolitical considerations on Russian imports, India responded to the international stage with ‘oil neutrality’. India’s External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, highlighted the country’s pragmatic approach to purchasing oil, explaining that the decisions are guided by market considerations rather than political motives. (Srinivasan, 2024). India's strategy is autonomous and practical, but ultimately, the nation depends on other nations for its oil. Unlike Western countries that can afford to cut ties with politically contentious sources of oil, India’s lack of domestic reserves means it must rely on sources like Russia to fulfil its needs. Furthermore, India’s per capita income is still far behind that of its Western counterparts, so the country must consider the oil price before other considerations. This became apparent during the Ukraine crisis, as Western countries began purchasing Middle-Eastern oil, driving up prices significantly (Srinivasan, 2024).

However, instead of seeing India’s oil dependence as a limitation, Indian officials have consistently framed its energy interests as a sovereign right, arguing that India can make decisions based solely on its interests. Additionally, India reemphasises its ‘oil neutrality’ stance by positioning itself as a global supply and demand channel actor. India stated that by purchasing Russian oil, the country seeks to moderate oil prices globally by preventing a monopoly supply market in the Middle East, which would further drive up prices (Srinivasan, 2024). It sends a clear message that energy security and economic stability can and will be prioritised, even if that means facing criticism or potential political friction with Western allies.

The Look West Conundrum

India’s expanding energy portfolio signals a shift from its reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports, in contrast to the country’s ‘Look West’ Policy. The ‘Look West’ Policy came under the Modi government, aiming for broader economic engagement and bilateral ties with West Asian countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel (PN, 2020). The bold strategy seeks to make India a reliable partner to these countries despite the internal fault lines within the regions (PN, 2020). This marks a shift from India’s historical foreign policy approach to this region, which mainly focused on establishing ties for energy security purposes (PN, 2020). By leveraging its soft power and an extensive diaspora of over 9 million Indians in the Gulf region (Prakash, 2024), India seeks to position itself as a neutral and stabilising force amidst the volatile region.

Despite these ambitious aims, India has seen a significant fall in its imports of Middle Eastern oil. India’s crude oil imports from Russia have increased by 11% this September (Verma, 2024). Simultaneously, its imports from the Middle East and OPEC countries have been declining steadily; the Middle East’s share of imports fell from 43% to 41% from April to September 2024 (Verma, 2024). As India reduces its dependence on Middle Eastern oil, it potentially undermines the economic foundation of its partnerships with Gulf states, where energy trade has traditionally formed the basis of bilateral ties.

This is particularly applicable to the case of Iran, which has seen its share of energy imports fall to zero in India. While Iran has historically been a strategic partner to India, the success of the bilateral ties between the countries has been strained due to various reasons (Agarwal, 2024). Iran and India have previously aspired to collaborate on projects like the Chabahar port, which provided India access to Afghanistan and Central Asia by bypassing Pakistan (Agarwal, 2024). However, in 2019, following the US sanctions on Iran after it revoked its nuclear deal, India stopped importing oil from the country altogether (Agarwal, 2024). Additionally, India has been growing ties with Israel, which has further affected Iran relations.

Israel Ties and Energy Security

India views a peaceful and stable Middle East as crucial to furthering its geopolitical objectives as it transforms its relationship with the region from one centred only on energy interests to one of reciprocal benefits and renewing exchanges (PN, 2020). However, the escalating crisis between Israel and Palestine risks destabilising India’s ‘Look West’ Policy and its carefully balanced ties within the region.

India’s ties with Israel have transformed in recent years, away from its historic support for the Palestinian cause (Markley, 2023). Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India's ties with Israel have emerged into the spotlight. Modi’s groundbreaking 2017 visit to Israel, the first by any Indian prime minister, and his warm reception of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in New Delhi showcase a personal affinity and diplomatic alignment that has come to signify a closer, more visible relationship between the two nations (Markley 2023). Therefore, we can see that India is now letting go of its long-standing alliance with Iran to strengthen its connections, primarily with Israel and the Gulf nations.

Navigating the Middle East: What to Expect

India attempts to strengthen its position as a non-aligned regional actor by maintaining a balanced' Look West' approach. This careful strategy could enhance India's credibility as a stabilising force in the Middle East and a crucial player in shaping regional peace and security dialogues. Thus, India continues to cultivate a close relationship with the Gulf and Israel. As India repeatedly signals its oil independence, its alliance with the Middle East could diversify to non-oil sectors like technology, trade, and investment to strengthen its Gulf partnerships. Nevertheless, India’s ‘oil neutrality’ approach will allow the country to maintain energy security without overly committing to any single bloc, especially the West, where alliances could be seen as restrictive for India’s economic agendas.

Strategic Goals in an Evolving Multipolar World

India’s foreign policy is evolving to enhance its autonomy and leverage emerging global dynamics in an increasingly multipolar world. By diversifying its alliances beyond traditional Western powers—strengthening ties with Russia for energy and the Gulf states for trade and investment—India is securing its national interests through a non-aligned stance. This approach reflects a broader strategy that involves leveraging global contradictions to expand India’s strategic options (Tellis, 2021). For instance, the US may have rebuked India for its relationship with Russia, but Russia may not be as relevant to the US now as China is. This shows a strategic understanding of American interests and how India might align with them while still pursuing its own goals. This departs from India’s traditional nonalignment, endorsing a strategy of ‘multi-alignment,’ where partnerships are cultivated not out of convenience but through strategic convergence (Tellis, 2021).

In asserting its right to choose its energy suppliers, India signals its refusal to compromise its economic stability and growth for external political agendas. This assertive independence regarding oil imports is not just a practical solution for India’s needs—it’s a bold statement about its place in the global order as a formidable, independent actor.

References

Agarwal, R. (2024, August 14). The role of Iran in India’s strategic outreach in West Asia. orfonline.org. https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-role-of-iran-in-india-s-strategic-outreach-in-west-as ia

Markley, D. (2023, November 7). Amid war in the Middle East, India-israel ties reach New Milestone. United States Institute of Peace. https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/11/amid-war-middle-east-india-israel-ties-reach-ne w-milestone

PN, K. (2020, August 28). India’s “look west” policy in the Middle East. Diplomatist. https://diplomatist.com/2020/08/28/indias-look-west-policy-in-the-middle-east/

Prakash, P. (2024, June 13). Indians in Kuwait and Gulf Countries: A look at numbers. The Hindu. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/indians-in-kuwait-and-gulf-countries-a-look-at-n umbers/article68284574.ece

Srinivasan, C. (2024, August 23). “don’t have political strategy to...”: India’s jab on russian oil question. NDTV.com. https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-russian-crude-oil-purchase-pm-modi-in-ukraine-s-j aishankar-dont-have-political-strategy-to-indias-jab-on-russian-oil-question-6402254

Tellis, A. J. (2021, March 3). Non-Allied Forever: India’s grand strategy according to Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2021/03/non-allied-forever-indias-grand-strategy-acc ording-to-subrahmanyam-jaishankar?lang=en

Verma, N. (2024, October 16). India’s Russian oil imports rise 11.7% in sept from Aug, Data Shows | reuters. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indias-russian-oil-imports-rise-117-sept-aug-data -shows-2024-10-16/

Vickery Jr, R. E., & Cutler, T. (2024, September 3). Oil for India. Commentary. https://nbr.org/publication/oil-for-india/