South Korea: The Coup that Never Was

What lies in the future for President Yoon Suk Yeol?

South Korea crisis live: Protesters stage a rally to demand South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to step down in front of the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea, Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2024.

The night of 3rd December 2024 was extraordinary in South Korean politics, as a series of events stunned the country and the world in how it unfolded, as the country seems to have survived an attempted coup by a President desperate to hold on to power.

A Crisis Watch Report

by Abhinav Santosh Nambeesan

Yoon Suk Yeol won power with an extremely slim margin in 2022, and his position was tenuous from the start. His conservative People Power Party did not control a majority in the legislature—the National Assembly—and the 2024 legislative elections resulted in the Democratic Party maintaining a twenty-seat majority. Yoon has been extremely unpopular in the country, with approval ratings reaching less than 20%.

With the opposition controlling the legislature, President Yoon had largely been unable to pass any of his policies into law, and found himself and his administration attacked due to many corruption scandals. A major scandal was around his wife, who was accused of illegally accepting a Dior bag as a gift, which added to the speculation that she had been using her position to enrich herself. Yoon repeatedly obstructed parliamentary attempts to investigate the matter, and it was one of the reasons why the opposition retained their majority in the April 2024 elections. His relationship with the legislature was terrible, and he refused to compromise by constantly vetoing all kinds of legislation, while the legislature opened numerous investigations into his government, and was in the process of impeaching several members of his government for their inaction against the corruption of the government.

The Declaration of Martial Law

At 10:30 PM on 3rd December, President Yoon issued a declaration of martial law³ in the country, saying, “I declare martial law to protect the free Republic of Korea from the threat of North Korean communist forces, to eradicate the despicable pro-North Korean anti-state forces that are plundering the freedom and happiness of our people, and to protect the free constitutional order.”  He suspended freedom of the press and assembly, and tried to prevent the National Assembly from meeting as well, since they could overturn his declaration by a majority vote.

It seems like there were two triggers¹ for President Yoon to take this action. According to South Korean law, the legislature has the right to reject the President’s budget plan and pass its own, which is what it did, by slashing spending from Yoon’s plan and especially targeting his office and those areas affected by corruption scandals. On 2nd December, the day before the declaration, the National Assembly moved to impeach several prosecutors who were accused of favouring the president by not acting against his alleged corruption. All of this occurred while thousands were protesting against government corruption, and there were growing calls for the president’s resignation or impeachment.

The last time martial law was declared following a coup in 1980 by Chun Doo-Hwan, and seven years of military dictatorship had followed. There were fears that this was yet another military coup, which was surprising to the world because South Korea has been a stable democracy, and ultimately, it seems like democracy has survived.

Despite the declaration, and the Army attempting to block legislators from entering the National Assembly, 190 legislators gathered in the chamber a few hours after the declaration, and used their constitutional power to lift martial law- as the constitution says that the National Assembly can lift it with a simple majority. At this stage, President Yoon had two options: he could either accept it, or ignore the legislature and seize power using the Army. He chose the former, and announced in the morning of 4th December that he was lifting martial law.

The Aftermath

There seems to be no question that Yoon is not going to survive in his job for long—impeachment proceedings² have begun against him, and with his own party turning against him, it seems like he has the choice of resigning or being impeached. South Korean politics are likely to be volatile for some time, and it does seem like the People People Party is going to be hit hard by this stain on their party. South Korean presidents are no stranger to being jailed- Park Geun-Hye, the daughter of former President Park Cheung Hee (who had seized power in a coup) was sentenced to 24 years in prison in 2018, following her impeachment over a scandal regarding the influence of a cult leader over the government.

It remains to be seen what the effect on South Korean politics is going to be, but certainly, President Yoon Suk Yeol seems to be on his way out, and possibly going to prison in the future.

What does this mean for India?

For India, the greatest concern here would mostly be economic⁴; South Korean companies like Samsung and Hyundai are hugely influential in India, but significant political turmoil due to an actual coup would also have an effect on the operations of companies like those—the chaebols, as they are called.

Politically⁵, India and South Korea have maintained good relations through the years since their independence, and President Yoon actually visited Delhi in 2023 for the G-20 summit, where he congratulated Modi for the success of Chandrayaan-3 and reviewed potential for future cooperation. Yoon also congratulated Modi for his victory in the general election, which happened a few months after Yoon’s own party suffered a defeat in the legislative elections.

Though Yoon’s presidency seems to be over, India and South Korea have maintained good enough relations historically that him leaving office should not affect bilateral relations to that extent.

References

1. “South Korea martial law: How did we get here?” Al Jazeera, 3rd December 2024

1. Hyung-Jin Kim, Kim Tom-Hyung; “South Korea’s opposition parties submit a motion to impeach President Yoon over sudden martial law.” ABC News, 4th December 2024

1. “Explainer: What we know about South Korea’s martial law declaration.” Reuters, 4th December 2024

1. “India-ROK Trade and Economic Relations.” Embassy of India, Seoul

1. “India-Republic of Korea Bilateral Relations.” mea.gov.in