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A MENA Desk Commentary by Syed Aman Ullah | Edited by Aishik Goswami
Research and Publications Division
The Red Sea, a crucial maritime passage, has recently become a theatre of geopolitical activity, with the Houthis of Yemen at the centre of these tensions. The Houthi movement traces back to the “Believing Youth” group (Carlson, 2024). The Houthi movement has evolved from a ragtag rebel group to a serious regional force in the past two decades. Initially aimed at reviving Zaydi Shi'ism’s influence within Yemen, the movement has evolved into a political and nationalistic entity, positioning itself as both the defender of Yemen against perceived imperialist forces and as the leader of a burgeoning Yemeni nation (Carlson, 2024).
This evolution is ideological and strategic, as the Houthis are a part of the Iran-led “axis of resistance." Their actions, particularly in the Red Sea, exemplify a calculated application of asymmetric warfare, leveraging advanced weaponry and regional alliances to challenge regional and global stability (Mazzucco, 2024). Far from being isolated acts of defiance, their maritime operations reflect a deeper strategy to disrupt trade routes and project influence across one of the world's most critical waterways (Mazzucco, 2024). This article explores their maritime strategies, economic impacts, and the fractured international response, unravelling the complex interplay of regional insurgency and global geopolitics that defines the Red Sea crisis.
Patterns and Methods of Houthi Maritime Operations in the Red Sea
The Houthis’ maritime operations in the Red Sea reflect a calculated and evolving strategy that leverages territorial control and technological advancements to disrupt regional security. The capture of Hodeida in 2014 was a turning point, granting access to strategic naval assets and enabling power projection into critical waterways (Rodriguez-Diaz et al., 2024). This territorial gain was not merely a geographical advantage but a stepping stone to operational expansion, as shown by their southward military campaign (2015–2017), which targeted vessels in the Bab al-Mandab Strait (Mahardhika & Munzilin, 2024). These actions underline a deliberate attempt to weaponize the Red Sea's maritime lanes as a tool for geopolitical leverage.
The escalation in attacks since November 2023, targeting commercial and military vessels, reveals a multifaceted strategy (Mahardhika & Munzilin, 2024). The framing of these attacks as a response to Israel’s Gaza offensive is layered with domestic goals, such as consolidating internal support and bolstering national identity (Carlson, 2024).
The employment of advanced weapon systems, including anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), unmanned surface vessels (USVs), and water-borne improvised explosive devices (WBIEDs), highlights a significant leap in tactical sophistication (Rodriguez-Diaz et al., 2024). This amplifies the threat to maritime security and signals the Houthis' ability to integrate emerging technologies into their operational arsenal. The scale and diversity of these tools reflect an adaptive approach aimed at maximizing disruption while mitigating the risk of confrontation with superior naval forces (Mahardhika & Munzilin, 2024).
A critical shift in Houthi strategy is evident in the reduction of visit, board, search, and seizure (VBSS) operations in favour of more complex, multilayered attacks combining USVs and airborne projectiles (Rodriguez-Diaz et al., 2024). This adaptation points to an evolving threat perception influenced by heightened interception risks of international naval coalitions (Mahardhika & Munzilin, 2024). However, the expansion of their targeting criteria—from vessels directly linked to Israel to those with tenuous or nonexistent ties—raises questions about the precision and objectives of their intelligence apparatus.
Strikes on vessels associated with Russia, China, and Iran suggest strategic overreach or a deliberate move to broaden the scope of their disruptive impact, albeit at the cost of operational credibility (Carlson, 2024). The Houthis’ evolving maritime tactics underscore the intersection of political messaging, military strategy, and technological adaptation. Their operations are not merely acts of disruption but calculated manoeuvres that expose vulnerabilities in maritime security frameworks (Mahardhika & Munzilin, 2024).
Economic Implications of Disruptions in Red Sea Trade
The trade disruption in the Red Sea has triggered a cascade of economic implications, affecting various sectors and stakeholders globally. The Houthi attacks have significantly reduced maritime traffic through the Red Sea and Suez Canal and have created a complex economic landscape with immediate and long-term consequences (Mahardhika & Munzilin, 2024).
A critical and immediate repercussion is the sharp rise in shipping costs as companies reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the volatile Red Sea. While this approach mitigates security risks, it comes at the expense of surplus fuel consumption and extended transit times, inflating freight costs exponentially (Sotiropoulos, 2024). The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), which nearly doubled from its 2023 average by early 2024, underscores the severity of these financial pressures on global shipping (Sotiropoulos 2024). These costs inevitably ripple through the economy, worsening inflationary pressures and placing additional burdens on consumers.
The trade disruptions have led to considerable delays in global supply chains. The Red Sea is a critical conduit for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from the Middle East to Europe, Asia, and Africa (Mahardhika & Munzilin, 2024). Rising energy prices, triggered by these interruptions, have far-reaching consequences for energy-dependent industries, disproportionately affecting developing nations that lack resilience to price volatility (Rodriguez-Diaz et al. 2024). Beyond immediate costs, the reduced trade volume through the Suez Canal—evidenced by a 67% year-on-year decrease in container ship transits—has adversely affected the revenues of nations like Egypt, which depend heavily on canal traffic (Sotiropoulos, 2024).
On a strategic level, the heightened risks in the Red Sea have necessitated increased international naval deployments, amplifying geopolitical tensions in an already volatile region. This militarization may inadvertently escalate hostilities, complicating efforts to stabilize the maritime trade corridor (Mahardhika & Munzilin 2024). Furthermore, the associated risks may compel shipping companies to reassess their dependence on the Red Sea route, potentially instigating long-term shifts in global trade patterns (Sotiropoulos, 2024).
Response from the International Community
The Houthi attacks in the Red Sea underscore a multifaceted geopolitical crisis. The attacks were primarily motivated by a desire for domestic legitimacy, regional influence, and the offensive in Gaza, while the international community's response is varied and reflects a fractured consensus (Carlson, 2024). The Houthis are seeking to establish themselves as a prominent regional power, view the US as an adversary, and frame their attacks as acts of solidarity with Palestine (Carlson, 2024). Their actions are not purely ideological but pragmatic, aiming to increase domestic support and enhance regional recognition (Carlson, 2024).
The international response to these attacks reveals a fragmented and inconsistent approach, exposing underlying divergences in geopolitical priorities and interpretations of international law. The United States, supported by its allies, has adopted a militarized response, deploying B-2 Spirit stealth bombers to neutralize Houthi positions (Lopez, 2024). This represents a clear escalation in the use of force, signalling a shift from defensive posturing to an offensive strategy aimed at significantly degrading Houthi military capabilities (Gordon, 2024).
Invoking Article 51 of the UN Charter, the coalition justifies its actions as self-defence, yet the legitimacy of such operations—particularly strikes on merchant vessels—remains legally contentious (Glavica & Brulc, 2024). Critics argue that these actions blur the lines between state and non-state actors in international law, raising questions about the proportionality and legality of military interventions against non-state groups (Glavica & Brulc, 2024).
In contrast, the European Union has taken a more cautious stance, emphasizing de-escalation and vessel protection by establishing EUNAVFOR ASPIDES, a maritime security initiative (Glavica & Brulc 2024). This approach reflects a broader divergence from the US and UK interventionist strategies, prioritizing regional stability over direct confrontation. However, this restrained strategy has faced criticism for its perceived inability to address the conflict's root causes or deter further Houthi aggression. Meanwhile, Russia and China have vocally opposed the US-led strikes, framing them as violations of sovereignty and international norms, thereby exacerbating divisions within the global community (Fernandes 2024).
Further complicating the situation, recent Israeli airstrikes in Yemen represent a strategic expansion of conflict lines in the region. These strikes, conducted in response to Houthi attacks on Israel, are a significant escalation of the conflict, reflecting Israel's strategy to counter threats from Iran and its affiliated groups, contributing to a pattern of military engagement that includes historical operations against Hamas and Hezbollah (Euronews, 2024).
By targeting various groups aligned with Iran, Israel displays its regional power status and contributes to the escalating nature of these interconnected conflicts (Euronews, 2024). The Israeli strikes, while targeting Houthi positions, also signify a broader regional strategy aimed at asserting dominance amid escalating tensions. The strategic locations targeted by Israel underline a desire not simply to respond to threats but to dismantle the logistical and operational foundations that enable Houthi capabilities (Euronews, 2024).
Conclusion
The Houthi attacks in the Red Sea demonstrate the group’s adept use of asymmetric warfare tactics, strategically targeting maritime vessels to disrupt global trade. This escalation has profound economic implications, including soaring shipping costs and significant disruptions to supply chains, which threaten the stability of international markets. Additionally, the international community's response has been notably fragmented, revealing a lack of consensus on how to address the Houthi threat and the legal complexities of military interventions against non-state actors.
In conclusion, resolving this crisis requires addressing its root causes: Yemen’s political instability and the broader regional rivalries. Strengthening international maritime security through enhanced collaboration and investment is imperative. Additionally, diplomatic efforts must prioritize equitable political solutions in Yemen. The Red Sea crisis is a cautionary tale of neglect and reactionary policies. To avoid future disruptions, global actors must transition from fragmented approaches to integrated strategies that balance security, economic resilience, and long-term peacebuilding.
References
Carlson, J. 2024, 'Houthi Motivations Driving the Red Sea Crisis: Understanding How Ansar Allah’s Strategic Culture Goes beyond Gaza and Iran', Journal of Advanced Military Studies, vol. 15, no. 2.
Mahardhika, M.A.P. and Munzilin, K. 2024, ‘Yemeni Houthi’ Blockade of Israeli Merchant Ships in the Red Sea and its Impact on Regional and Global Stability’, JISIERA: The Journal of Islamic Studies and International Relations, vol. 7, pp. 15-31.
Mazzucco, L.J.M. 2024, ‘Iran and the Houthis’ Asymmetric Maritime Warfare Campaign in the Red Sea: A Study of the Sponsor-Proxy Model’, Journal for Iranian Studies, Specialised Studies, Rasanah: International Institute for Iranian Studies.
Rodriguez-Diaz, E., Alcaide, J.I., and Garcia-Llave, R. 2024, Challenges and Security Risks in the Red Sea: Impact of Houthi Attacks on Maritime Traffic’, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, vol. 12, no. 11, p. 1900.
Sotiropoulos, L. (2024) Geopolitics and maritime terrorism: challenges and the legal complexities in the Red Sea. Journal of the Academy of Management Studies, 2024(15), pp. 341-357
Euronews (2024) 'Israel strikes port in Yemen after Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv,' Euronews, 21 July. https://www.euronews.com/2024/07/20/israel-strikes-yemens-hodeidah-port-after-houthi-drone-attack-killed-one-in-tel-aviv
Fernandes, C. (2024). US and UK Military Strikes in Yemen and the Jus Ad Bellum. International and Comparative Law Quarterly, 73(4), 767-790.
Glavica, P., & Brulc, L. (2024). The Legality of the Defensive Measures Taken by the USA and the UK in Response to the Houthi Attacks. LEXONOMICA, 16(1), 67–84.
Gordon, C. (2024). B-2 Bombers Strike Houthi Targets in Yemen. Air & Space Forces Magazine.
Lopez, C., 2024. B-2s Strike Houthi Targets in Yemen.Air & Space Forces Magazine.https://www.airandspaceforces.com/b-2s-strike-houthi-targets-yemen/
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