.png)
by In a Europe increasingly shifting to the right, Portugal may have looked like the country with the best chance of resisting it. Despite having been historically dominated by left and centre-left forces, it seemingly could not go against the prevailing political trends.
An Election Watch Commentary by Abhinav Santhosh Nambeesan | Edited by Muskaan Mir
Research and Publications Division
In the aftermath of the 2015 migrant crisis, the whole of Europe saw a rise of right-wing and far-right parties. This trend continued into the 2020s, particularly highlighted by the success of the FdI in Italy, the AfD in Germany, the RN in France, and Vox in Spain. Still, when legislative elections were held in 2022, Portugal saw a huge victory for the ruling Socialist Party, which managed to win a majority in the legislature—something that is quite rare in countries that use proportional representation for legislative elections. It seemed like the right would not see the same rise in support that it had seen in other countries, but two years later, the situation was turned on its head.
The ruling government, led by Prime Minister Antonio Costa, had been utterly consumed by scandals, causing many of his ministers to resign and many investigations to be launched. The most severe, and ultimately what caused Costa to resign¹, was a corruption scandal related to the mining of lithium in the country, due to several members of his government being arrested. In this situation, the Portuguese constitution gave the President the power to either dissolve the legislature and call new elections or appoint a new government. The Socialists preferred the latter option since they continued to hold a majority in the legislature, so any new government would continue to be led by the Socialist Party, but President Marcelo de Sousa decided to call new elections, which would ultimately be held in March 2024.
The Socialist Party, after Costa’s resignation, nominated Pedro Nuno Santos, the former Housing Minister, who was hoping to manage to keep as many seats as he could despite the scandals of the government, which he did by trying to distance himself from the previous government itself. However, this had not been very easy, because Santos himself had been involved in a few of the corruption scandals of Costa’s government, and so the scandal-ridden brand of the government remained on Santos.
Meanwhile, the primary opposition was the Social Democratic Party (PSD), which is a centre-right party that last won an election in 2015. Led by Luis Montenegro, it sought to end five years of Socialist Party rule, focussing primarily on economic issues. Due to Portugal’s proportional representation system, it is exceedingly rare for any party to get a majority, so the PSD formed an alliance with two other parties, called the Democratic Alliance (AD), under which they fought the election. The AD largely had more conservative policies, though, being a mainstream party in a country where both parties are in consensus on a lot of issues, they are relatively centrist.
The election was actually very notable as it involved the rise of a populist right-wing party, in the same vein as other countries like Germany, France, and the UK. While it had limited success in 2022, the anti-establishment right-wing party “Chega” saw a huge rise in support as it mobilized disaffected voters who disliked the two major parties, primarily by pointing out the corruption of the government and also the inefficient economic policies of both parties. Like other right-wing populist parties in Europe, it has also capitalized on the issue of immigration, though interestingly, that has not been as big of a focus. Unlike the RN in France, AfD in Germany, and Reform in the UK, Chega had a heavy focus on the economy instead of immigration, though it is also to the right of the mainstream on other social issues.
What major issues was the election fought on?
Aside from the ever-present issue of the economy, there were several other issues² in this election, with two in particular standing out.
With the incumbent government having resigned due to its various scandals, it was no wonder that corruption was a major issue on voters’ minds when they went to the polls. The Socialists had to work really hard to try and not be painted as a corrupt party, which was especially hard because Santos had been a part of Costa’s government and himself implicated in a few of the scandals the government suffered from. However, the PSD had also been implicated in corruption scandals at the state level, which has left the people feeling bitter about their choices. In this environment, Chega had emerged as the firm anti-establishment party, railing against the corruption of the major parties, with one of its slogans being “Portugal needs cleaning out.” It wasn’t a coincidence that Chega is Portuguese for “enough,” as the party really had positioned themselves as the “protest party” that those people dissatisfied with the establishment could vote for.
The cost of housing³ had also been a very major issue that voters were dissatisfied with, as housing in Portugal had become increasingly unaffordable, in line with the rest of the Western world, where it has been an issue too. The Portuguese welfare state had not been working very well for the people, especially on the issues of healthcare and education. Here, Chega had once again made promises to cut taxes and regulations and improve the economy by boosting the involvement of the private sector, while at the same time advocating for some left-wing positions like a higher minimum wage. The Socialists weren’t in a very good position here either, since Santos was the former Minister for Housing and Infrastructure.
What was the result of the election?
In the end, while both the Democratic Alliance (AD) and Socialist Party were eager to avoid domestic instability, that was not what happened⁴ when the results were announced on 20th March 2024. With the 230 seats of the “Assembly of the Republic” up for election, the AD managed to secure a victory, winning 80 seats, which was not nearly enough for a majority. The Socialist Party, despite the scandals that brought down the government, managed to win a total of 78 seats, just two behind the AD. Of course, they had lost more than forty seats, but this was better than some had expected.
The big surprise of this election—or rather the most notable aspect of it—was the rise of Chega, which won 50 seats, making them the third-largest party in the legislature, and the potential ‘kingmakers.’ Since the AD did not achieve a majority, it either needed to form a coalition or a minority government, and Luis Montenegro was left with the choice of a coalition with Chega or holding onto a fragile minority government.
In the aftermath, Chega wanted to be included in the government due to their wide support, which would give an AD-Chega coalition quite a large majority, but the AD did not want to be attached to Chega, both at the domestic and foreign levels, and eventually, Luis Montenegro formed a minority government and took office as Prime Minister on 2nd April.
The reaction to the election results was not positive, with attention largely focused on the rise of Chega. With most of Europe seeing the rise of populist right-wing parties, many saw Chega as yet another one of those parties who capitalized on the issue of immigration to gain votes. However, this is not entirely true. While immigration was certainly an issue in this election, the party largely emerged by focusing on economic issues and corruption in particular. Generalizing Chega as “just another anti-immigrant” party is not entirely true due to that, and its rise has shown that dissatisfaction with the economic and political establishment is a problem that Europe has to deal with as well.
How will the change in government affect its foreign policy?
The PSD itself is a rather big-tent coalition of social democrats, centrists, and right-wingers, but it is largely more in favour of moderate neoliberal economic policies. While it is different from the Socialist Party in economic policies, the two parties seem to share a consensus on foreign policy. The new government is unlikely to change stances regarding many broad foreign policy issues, such as the EU and Russia. However, a very big caveat is the issue of spending. Being a centre-right party that does not even have a majority in the legislature, the AD government has been constrained on the issue of spending, with anything such as aid to Ukraine and tackling climate change. While the Socialists might consider voting for such measures, the AD still needs to be careful regarding spending and the budget, especially with Chega applying heavy pressure from the right.
While aid to Ukraine has continued to flow and Portugal continues to hold a rather pro-EU stance, this shift in ideology, the rise of the populist right, and the lack of a majority make any kind of major foreign policy commitment harder, though collaboration between the two major parties might mitigate this.
India’s relations with Portugal are also likely to not be affected, remaining cordial as they have been for the past decades. Antonio Costa, the former Prime Minister, was himself of Indian origin, and visited India several times as well⁵. Under both Socialist and PSD administrations, Indian-Portuguese relations have remained warm, as they have been since the fall of the dictatorship of Antonio Salazar in 1968. The dispute regarding Goa was largely put behind the two nations after the transition to democracy, and today, the change in government has not affected relations very much.
The one area that could stand out as an issue would be Portuguese cooperation with China on economic and cultural relations, and India would seek to improve its own relationship with the country in order to avoid Chinese influence displacing Indian interests there, as India seeks to increase its involvement in Europe.
References
No comments:
Post a Comment