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by ‘When people are apathetic, democracy ends.’ That’s what the people of Georgia believe as the country witnesses mass protests against what many believe to be an unfree and unfair election and a government that wants to push in a direction antithetical to the public’s wishes. Who will win this battle?
An Election Watch Commentary by Abhinav Santhosh Nambeesan | Edited by Muskaan Mir
Research and Publications Division
The country of Georgia has witnessed many years of political turbulence, but the recent parliamentary election has acted as the trigger for weeks of nationwide protests¹, drawing the eyes of the world towards a country that has been steadily slipping into authoritarianism over the past decade. Georgia has also been moving closer to Russia—a country that a large demographic of the Georgian population actively hates and sees as a villain in its history. As a political and constitutional crisis grips the country, we must look at the recent elections and why it has caused such an explosion of opposition in Georgia.
A Modern History of Georgia
Georgia has an intriguing history, including a three-year stint as an independent country following the Russian Revolution. It was formed in 1991, when the country officially seceded from the USSR under the presidency of Zviad Gamsakhurdia, and was immediately beset with inter-ethnic tensions that caused a civil war. The internationally recognised borders of Georgia contains two territories—Abkhazia and South Ossetia—which are inhabited by the Abkhaz and Ossetian people respectively, two ethnic groups different from the majority Georgian people.
When the country gained its independence from the USSR, calls for autonomy grew in those areas, which grew violent as secession neared. As soon as Georgia seceded, the country witnessed a civil war as Abkhazian and South Ossetian separatists fought for their independence. In early 1992, Gamasakhurdia was overthrown in a coup by opposition leaders who had been fighting since the previous year, with the former communist leader of the country, Eduard Shevardnadze, becoming the President.
The civil war continued, with supporters of the deposed Gamasakhurdia fighting against the new government, but after the new President agreed to join the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Russia-led alliance of former Soviet states, the Russians helped Shevardnadze to win the struggle against the now-opposition forces. However, Russia also intervened on the separatists’ side, forcing the Georgians to sign a ceasefire with the Abkhazians and letting Russia station troops there; Russia even continued to station “peacekeeping forces” in the separatist regions in the future.
Throughout the ‘90s and early 2000s, the relationship between Georgia and Russia continued to deteriorate, worsening significantly after the 2003 parliamentary elections which sparked widespread allegations of fraud by the government and resulted in the ‘Rose Revolution.’ This toppled the incumbent Shevardnadze and his party and brought Mikhail Saakashvili to power.
Saakashvili’s victory was seen as a threat to both the Russians and the Ossetians, as he was definitively pro-Western, being in favor of closer ties to the European Union in particular. Soon after he came to power, tensions rapidly escalated between Georgia and Russia, and in 2008, they finally came to a head due to a combination of various issues but particularly Georgia attempting to seek NATO membership at the Bucharest Summit.
In 2008, as Georgia attempted once again to regain control over South Ossetia, Russia invaded the country² in order to ‘assist its proxies,’ and with the West distracted with various crises such as the global financial crisis, the Russians easily defeated the Georgians. After a ceasefire was concluded, Russia officially recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and stationed their troops there. Despite this obvious act of aggression that was meant to keep the Georgians from slipping into the Western sphere of influence, the West largely did not punish the Russians, and it is seen as the biggest green light for Putin to continue his aggression towards Ukraine in 2014 and eventually 2022.
Saakashvili became subjected to continuous, mounting pressure for several years due to accusations of corruption, and despite his party’s victory in the 2008 parliamentary elections—where there were, once again, accusations of fraud—various scandals continued to tank his popularity through that term. With a constitutional change in 2010 that strengthened the power of parliament, the 2012 elections were going to be even more crucial, and it was here when the Georgian Dream came into play.
Billionaire oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, who had been stripped of his Georgian citizenship due to his deep ties to Russia—including having Russian citizenship—founded a new political party in 2012 called Georgian Dream in order to consolidate the anti-government votes around this new opposition party. In October 2012, the parliamentary elections resulted in a coalition led by Georgian Dream taking power, with Ivanishvili becoming Prime Minister.
Throughout the rest of the decade, Georgian Dream won many big victories, gaining a parliamentary majority in 2016 that it has not relinquished until now, and faced accusations of abuse of power, as many of its political opponents, including Mikahil Saakashvili, were charged with crimes that they claimed to be politically motivated. The party, despite initially signing a trade deal with the EU, also began to move away from closer integration with the organization—against the wishes of the country’s population.
While Russia continues to act as the protector of the breakaway regions, the government of Georgia has been much more friendly to the country than the people seem to want. Russia is still seen by most Georgians to be an aggressor which wants to integrate Georgia into itself—a feeling which grew stronger after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Georgian Dream, meanwhile, has faced many charges of abuse of power, especially of rigging elections, which were levied by the opposition in the 2020 elections.
The ‘Foreign Agent Law’ and Run-Up to the Election
In April 2024, the government, led by Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, introduced a law that has become known as the ‘Foreign Agents Law’³ or the ‘Russian Law,’ which it had initially enacted and withdrawn in 2023 due to mass protests. With parliamentary elections to be held in October, the law was seen as a way for the government to suppress opposition and pro-European voices in the country. The Foreign Agent Law says that any NGO that received more than 20% of its funding from abroad needed to register itself as an organization that was acting in the interest of foreign countries.
While similar laws exist in many countries, the previous actions of the government and the upcoming elections drew comparison to a very similar law enacted in Russia in 2012. NGOs have been a major factor in the pro-Western campaigns in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, which has led to the Russians branding them as tools of Western influence. Despite polls showing that the vast majority of Georgians support EU membership, the suppression of these pro-European voices, especially through this law, drew a great deal of anger, causing protests to follow.
President Salome Zourabichvili, despite having been appointed by the government, has stood against these actions by Georgian Dream, though her veto was overridden by the parliament. With elections being held in October, the opposition had already claimed that it was not a fair election, as their voices were being suppressed.
The Election and Mass Protests
The opposition largely consisted of two major coalitions—the “Coalition for Change” and the Unity alliance—but even before the election was held, there were accusations of suppression and intimidation by the government. On 26th October, the parliamentary election was held, and unsurprisingly, Georgian Dream retained its parliamentary majority, winning 89 seats out of 150 and 53% of the popular vote, but there were widespread accusations of vote-rigging and fraud. The opposition as well as President Zourabichvili rejected the results as ‘illegitimate’ and called for fresh elections.
Many international observers⁴ also accused the elections of having been rigged, alleging vote-buying, intimidation and violence, obstruction of observers, and significant discrepancies in turnout levels (male turnout in some places even exceeding 100%). The EU and US rejected the results and called for an investigation, while the President also called for an inquiry through the courts. The Prosecutor’s Office, which is responsible for investigating such national issues, launched an examination of the allegations as well, despite the courts not being receptive to an investigation.
Mass protests and strikes followed across the nation, as the President continued to reject the results and foreign countries called for a re-run with international supervision. Despite such opposition, the new parliament re-appointed the Georgian Dream government, which Kobakhidze would continue to lead. Throughout the rest of October and November, protests continued and eventually worsened.
On 28th November, Kobakhidze announced, in what was seen as a statement against the EU’s rejection of election results, that the government would be suspending EU accession talks for another parliamentary term- four years- which was received poorly in a country where the overwhelming majority of people support EU membership. The series of events—the Foreign Agents Law, the rigged election, and now the suspension of accession talks—has made the people feel that the government is moving closer to Russia, and protests exploded across the country once again, and this time, they have continued till present.
President Zourabichvili does not have any power to reject the election results, especially after the 2010 constitutional change, but she has continued to reject the election as illegitimate, and when the presidential election came in December, the Georgian Dream-controlled electoral college appointed their own loyalist to the position, Mikheil Kavelashvili, in an election where he was the only candidate. However, Zourabichvili and the opposition has rejected this result as well, and claims to be the legitimate president. The political crisis does not look like it will end soon, and mass protests are going to continue until either it becomes much worse or there is some resolution.
India’s Stake in Georgia
India maintained rather good relations with the USSR, and after its disintegration, India has also maintained good relations with post-Soviet states, including Georgia. Despite the controversies of the Georgian Dream government, India has maintained good bilateral relations⁵, with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar visiting the country in 2021, meeting both the Prime Minister and the President. There are many Indians residing in Georgia, with thousands of students studying there, and according to the MEA, many medical students who were forced to leave Ukraine came to Georgia to continue their studies.
Despite political tensions throughout 2024, Indian tourists have continued to travel to the country, and many Indians continue to go there to do business, according to the Georgian Ambassador to India⁶. India has stayed strategically silent on the chaos surrounding the election, perhaps in order to avoid upsetting the Russians too much, but undoubtedly, the Indian government desires stability in the country mostly for the sake of Indians residing there.
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