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Have the German Elections Given Europe Cause to Celebrate?

Indian Foreign Policy Projectby   in Commentary , Election Watch , Europe , Germany 0 comments

The continent was waiting with bated breath to see what the lynchpin of the European project would look like after February. Ultimately, questions prevail about whether the result is positive or just staving off what seems to be an inevitable capture of power by the far right. 

An Election Watch Desk Commentary by Abhinav Santhosh Nambeesan | Edited by Muskaan Mir

Election posters in Frankfurt, Germany on Feb. 8th, 2025. (AP)

There is no question that the fate of the European Union in the modern world depends on two countries—France and Germany. The brainchild¹ of President François Mitterand and Chancellor Helmut Kohl, the continuity of the EU is dependent on these two countries continuing their active support, even while other countries like Spain, the Netherlands, and Poland emerged as centres of power. This has meant that every election in these countries is crucial for how weak or powerful the EU is. For the last few years, it has been France that has attracted attention for the rise of its far right, but this time, it was the German election that was the nail-biter.


A Brief History of Post-War German Politics


After the end of the Second World War, the Allied powers implemented various reforms to completely reshape Germany. In the West, the US, UK, and France created a new legal, political, and economic system inspired by their own, including the repeal of most Nazi laws under Control Council Law No. 1 as well as other legislation. Meanwhile, in contrast, the Soviet occupation zone looked completely different as yet another dictatorship took hold. East Germany, once it was established, was ruled by the Socialist Unity Party of Germany (SED) until 1989 with a command economy like the rest of the Soviet bloc. The West, however, took a different turn.


West Germany was founded with a liberal democratic political structure, and its first elections were won by the alliance between the Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union. Led by Konrad Adenauer, the CDU/CSU would lead the country through an economic miracle in the 1950s and 1960s. Throughout its history, West Germany’s government was formed either by the CDU/CSU or the Social Democratic Party (SPD), forming coalitions with the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) to gain power. Rapid economic growth and political stability stamped out pro-Nazi sentiment, and by 1990, West Germany was one of the largest countries in the world, at least economically.


In 1990, the two Germanies reunified, and the Federal Republic of Germany was left with a major issue. East Germany, having a command economy that focused on industrial production over consumer satisfaction, faced a massive exodus of educated workers who moved to Western states where they would be paid far more and where opportunities were much higher. Western businesses quickly moved in and bought up former East German government-owned industries, which resulted in the eastern states continuing to be deprived of capital.


Even today, the deprivation of East German states²—Brandenburg, Saxony, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Saxony-Anhault, and Thuringia—compared to the West continues to be a major issue. In almost all statistics, these states are the most deprived and left behind despite trillions of Euros worth of investment into infrastructure, industry, and other sectors of the economy to try and 'level up' the East. This has meant that the East has remained a hotbed for extremist activity to thrive and for the emergence of new radical parties that promise to bring back a golden age from a pre-deprivation period.


Germany has been a lynchpin of the EU ever since it was founded in 1993, and under CDU/CSU Chancellor Angela Merkel, it took over as the de-facto head of the organization, leading Europe through major crises³ such as the 2008 debt crisis and the migrant crisis. However, as immigration became a major issue on the continent after 2015, German leadership came under question by more right-wing politicians across the continent as well as within the country itself.


In 2021, Olaf Scholz became Chancellor as the election led to a three-party coalition being formed between the SPD, FDP and the Green Party, but the coalition suffered from unpopularity throughout its rule. Infighting between the left-wing SPD and centre-right FDP ultimately brought it down via a no-confidence vote in December 2024, triggering the elections that were held in February 2025.


Why This Election Mattered


German politics has had a tendency to be wary of non-centrist political forces since 1949, as politicians have always been afraid of appearing too close to the Nazis in ideology or policies. The CDU/CSU, despite being nominally centre-right, is therefore not really right-wing in many of their ideas and has always been very supportive of the European project and allying with the Americans. Ideas outside the mainstream have historically been condemned and rejected by the mainstream parties, but the 2010s made the threat of extremism much more real.


In 2013, driven primarily by populist anger against German bailouts of those countries suffering from the Eurozone debt crisis, several Eurosceptic politicians founded the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which was primarily supposed to be a vehicle for Eurosceptic politicians in the country whose ideas were rejected by the mainstream parties. After the 2015 migrant crisis, the AfD quickly shifted to a lot of anti-immigration and anti-Islam rhetoric and was roundly condemned by mainstream politicians, though it found reliable supporters in eastern Germany, particularly in the state of Saxony. In 2017, the AfD won 94 seats in the parliament, securing votes across the country and gaining a foothold in the east, and made itself known to the country as a party with serious electoral legitimacy⁴.


Throughout the AfD’s existence, it has been criticised by the mainstream, and fears have persisted that it could be the reincarnation of the Nazi movement. Nonetheless, it has only grown in popularity since 2021 using populist economic and social rhetoric, calling out the failures of the government to resolve Germany’s economic stagnation and cost of living crisis, and for ‘letting in’ hundreds of thousands of foreigners. Eastern Germany was especially convinced by these arguments which were presented in state-level elections in 2024 in Saxony and Thuringia, where the AfD performed very well, coming in the top two in both states. As the incumbent coalition collapsed, the AfD led all three incumbent parties in the polls, and only trailed the CDU/CSU. Fears constantly abounded that the CDU/CSU’s leader, Friedrich Merz, could be convinced to form a coalition with this extremist party, though he continuously promised not to do so.⁵


On the other side of the political spectrum, a force was emerging on the far left as well. After East Germany was absorbed, its ruling Socialist Unity Party (SED) actually rebranded into the Party of Democratic Socialism and then became the party known as Die Linke (“The Left”). Die Linke was relatively popular in the eastern states, as many remained loyal to it, though it never came to power nationally and was only a minor coalition partner in several state governments. The party suffered from a faction that was quite Eurosceptic and pro-Russia, which was used by the right to constantly fear monger about its extremism. In 2021, when left-wing parties won power, Die Linke was not included in a coalition as its dismal performance made the FDP or Greens more preferable choices.


By 2024 though, a schism had developed. The faction in control believed that it was in the interest of the party to advocate for social justice policies, while there were many politicians who were socially conservative and opposed to identity politics. This schism ultimately led to the formation of a breakaway party by former Die Linke leader Sahra Wagenknecht⁶, known as the Bundnis Sahra Wagenknecht (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance) (BSW), which argued for economically populist measures and rejected identity politics.


The BSW, which quickly surged in the polls, made a lot of people nervous because not only was it sceptical of the EU,  it even argued for Germany to leave NATO altogether and to drop all sanctions on Russia. For the pro-EU camp, the emergence of two popular Eurosceptic parties who could work together on the foreign policy issue. Wagenknecht, who was pretty popular in the east too, seemed like she could steal enough votes from the mainstream parties to create significant political instability.


What’s Next After The Election?


The election campaign was dominated by issues of the economy, such as the cost of living, stagnating industrial growth, investment into green industries, and rising energy prices, the last of which had been especially affected by the Russia-Ukraine war. All parties proposed various measures to deal with these economic issues, but the SPD and its coalition partners were significantly hurt because of the coalition’s instability and lack of ability. The CDU/CSU consistently led in the polls, with the AfD surprisingly trailing at the very end. Die Linke saw a rally in the polls⁷ after the election was actually triggered.


Ultimately, the election result was pleasantly surprising. Of course, the CDU/CSU came first, winning 28.5% of the vote and getting 208 seats. The ruling SPD lost almost a hundred seats, winning only 120 seats and 16.4% of the vote. The Greens lost a third of their seats and landed at 85 seats, which was better than many had been expecting, while the FDP actually managed to lose all 91 seats because it only got 4.3% of the vote. According to the German electoral system, which follows a proportional representation system, a party has to win at least 5% of the vote to have any seats in the parliament—a measure designed to keep extremist parties from emerging like they did in the Weimar Republic.


The AfD, as expected from the polls, surged massively and came in second, with 152 seats. On the other hand, the BSW came extremely close to the 5% threshold but ultimately failed to surpass it, meaning that it did not get a single seat in the parliament. Meanwhile, the other left party Die Linke surged as well and won 64 seats in the parliament.


Friedrich Merz has now firmly committed to not forming a coalition with the AfD, and it is apparent that a ‘grand coalition⁸’ is to be formed between the CDU/CSU and the SPD, especially as they have already begun to work together on removing the constitutional ‘debt brake’ before the new parliament is seated. For the European Union, this is a positive result because Merz is also quite pro-Europe and is likely to follow the same pro-EU policies as Scholz and cooperate with other European leaders on the issue.


Is this Election Result Good for India?


In this rapidly changing world, where the US has quickly shot itself multiple times in the foot by attacking its allies through tariffs, it is crucial that India maintains a good relationship with Europe, and the existence of a relatively strong and stable EU is crucial for such a relationship. Germany has consistently been friendly with India regardless of which party is in charge, and it is unlikely that Merz would be anything but supportive of economic and defence cooperation with India.


Indian interests in Europe lie primarily in serving as a counterbalance to Russian and Chinese interests, and at this time, where the EU is increasingly looking away from both the US and Russia, India needs the EU to be strong as an economic partner. As talks also continue to abound for the EU to begin massive rearmament, India can also act as a defence partner for the bloc, with German arms companies in particular.




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